Association of ionospheric storms and substorms of global electron content with proxy AE index

Abstract

Storm time modeling of Global Electron Content (GEC) calculated from GIM-TEC for 1999-2013 is associated with new proxy of Auroral Electrojet variability expressed as a smoothed and normalized Auroral Electrojet index (AEsn). The variability in GEC is captured by the computation of DGEC which is obtained by taking the hourly ratio of instant GEC to median of GEC values at the same hour of 7 preceding days. The storm onset is determined by a joint analysis of variations in IMF-B magnitude, its derivative (dB/dt) and direction of IMF-Bz together with sudden increase in AE exceeding 900 nT. The start of the pre-storm period is chosen to be 7 h prior to the storm onset time and the storm recovery period ends 41 h after the storm onset. The hourly AEsn is related to DGEC during the storm period through a polynomial whose coefficients are estimated in the linear least squares sense. Estimated coefficients are examined and grouped with respect to different kinds of auroral storms. Examples of modeling methodology are provided using four different kinds of intense storms and substorms, namely, Positive Arctic, Positive Antarctic, Negative Arctic and Negative Antarctic that occurred between 1999 and 2013. The estimated coefficients for storm periods are compared with those of non-storm periods. It is observed that the positive correlation between the increase of AE and GEC can be a promising precursor of space weather variability.