Judgmental adjustments of previously adjusted forecasts

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dc.citation.epage238en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber2en_US
dc.citation.spage213en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber39en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGönül, M. S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLawrence, M.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T10:09:21Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T10:09:21Z
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.description.abstractForecasts are important components of information systems. They provide a means for knowledge sharing and thus have significant decision-making impact. In many organizations, it is quite common for forecast users to receive predictions that have previously been adjusted by providers or other users of forecasts. Current work investigates some of the factors that may influence the size and propensity of further adjustments on already-adjusted forecasts. Two studies are reported that focus on the potential effects of adjustment framing (Study 1) and the availability of explanations and/or original forecasts alongside the adjusted forecasts (Study 2). Study 1 provides evidence that the interval forecasts that are labeled as "adjusted" are modified less than the so-called "original/unadjusted" predictions. Study 2 suggests that the provision of original forecasts and the presence of explanations accompanying the adjusted forecasts serve as significant factors shaping the size and propensity of further modifications. Findings of both studies highlight the importance of forecasting format and user perceptions with critical organizational repercussions.en_US
dc.description.provenanceMade available in DSpace on 2016-02-08T10:09:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 bilkent-research-paper.pdf: 70227 bytes, checksum: 26e812c6f5156f83f0e77b261a471b5a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008en
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1540-5915.2008.00190.xen_US
dc.identifier.issn0011-7315
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/23130
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwell Publishingen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.2008.00190.xen_US
dc.source.titleDecision Sciencesen_US
dc.subjectDecision support systemsen_US
dc.subjectFactorial experimental designen_US
dc.subjectForecast adjustmentsen_US
dc.subjectForecast explanationsen_US
dc.subjectJudgmental forecastingen_US
dc.subjectLaboratory experimentsen_US
dc.titleJudgmental adjustments of previously adjusted forecastsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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