Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats

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dc.citation.epage39en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber1en_US
dc.citation.spage31en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber32en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBolger, F.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T10:27:41Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T10:27:41Z
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.description.abstractThis paper aims to examine potential differences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives of providers and users of predictions. Experimental procedure consists of asking participants to assume the role of forecast providers and to construct forecasts using different formats, followed by requesting usefulness ratings for these formats (Phase 1). Usefulness of the formats are rated again in hindsight after receiving individualized performance feedback (Phase 2). In the ensuing role switch exercise, given new series and external predictions, participants are required to assign usefulness ratings as forecast users (Phase 3). In the last phase, participants are given performance feedback and asked to rate the usefulness in hindsight as users of predictions (Phase 4). Results reveal that regardless of the forecasting role, 95% prediction intervals are considered to be the most useful format, followed by directional predictions, 50% interval forecasts, and lastly, point forecasts. Finally, for all formats and for both roles, usefulness in hindsight is found to be lower than usefulness prior to performance feedback presentation.en_US
dc.description.provenanceMade available in DSpace on 2016-02-08T10:27:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 bilkent-research-paper.pdf: 70227 bytes, checksum: 26e812c6f5156f83f0e77b261a471b5a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.omega.2003.09.007en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1873-5274
dc.identifier.issn0305-0483
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/24328
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherPergamon Pressen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2003.09.007en_US
dc.source.titleOmegaen_US
dc.subjectForecast formaten_US
dc.subjectForecast provideren_US
dc.subjectForecast useren_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectJudgmenten_US
dc.titleProvider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formatsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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