A simulation model for breast cancer epidemiology in Turkey

Abstract

Breast cancer has a vital importance in women's life. In the world, breast cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing. Considering the burden of disease, in 2012 1.67 million women got breast cancer and about 522,000 women died due to breast cancer. With this numbers, breast cancer ranks as the most common cancer among women in the world and the fifth cause of death from cancer overall. Breast cancer has a high incidence and mortality rates especially in developing countries, where late diagnosis of cancer is also increasing the disease burden. Lack of knowledge of the exact causes of breast cancer increases the importance of early detection. The most effective way of early detection is to apply mammography screening. Screening the accurate target population increases the rate of early detection of breast cancer and lessens the economic and health burden of disease. In this study, two simulation models were constructed in order to analyze the population-based mammography screening programs for Turkey. The first model was run for 10 years for validation purpose while the second one was run for the women born in 1980 during their lifetime to analyze several screening programs. The screening programs differ from each other in terms of beginning and final age of screening and screening frequency. Costs and health outcomes of the screening policies were examined and non-dominated screening policies are determined according to these performance measures.