Energy, precious metals, and GCC stock markets: Is there any risk spillover?

Abstract

We analyze dynamic return and risk spillovers between commodity futures (energy & precious metals) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. Utilizing dynamic equicorrelation (DECO) models and the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we show the existence of significant return and risk spillovers between the commodities and the GCC stock markets, particularly during the onset of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. In addition, silver, platinum, and energy futures markets are net transmitter of returns to stock markets. Precious metals (except silver) and WTI oil are net transmitter of risk to GCC markets. Abdu Dhabi and Dubai are net transmitter of returns and risk to other markets. Moreover, portfolio management analysis shows that the mix of commodities and GCC equities provides diversification opportunities for different crisis periods. Finally, precious metal markets offer superior hedging effectiveness over energy markets for all GCC markets.