An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

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dc.citation.epage296en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber4en_US
dc.citation.spage283en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber6en_US
dc.contributor.authorWhitcomb, K. M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBenson, P. G.en_US
dc.contributor.authorCurley, S. P.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-28T06:49:21Z
dc.date.available2019-01-28T06:49:21Z
dc.date.issued1993en_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.description.abstractDespite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes; numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably lor all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects' overconfidence during the course of the experiment.en_US
dc.description.provenanceSubmitted by Mandana Moftakhari (mandana.mir@bilkent.edu.tr) on 2019-01-28T06:49:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 An_evaluation_of_the_reliability_of_probability_judgments_across_response_modes_and_over_time.pdf: 5011347 bytes, checksum: fd2e0182624f8a251d498e8c6b9dcf75 (MD5)en
dc.description.provenanceMade available in DSpace on 2019-01-28T06:49:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 An_evaluation_of_the_reliability_of_probability_judgments_across_response_modes_and_over_time.pdf: 5011347 bytes, checksum: fd2e0182624f8a251d498e8c6b9dcf75 (MD5) Previous issue date: 1993en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/bdm.3960060406en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1099-0771
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/48404
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960060406en_US
dc.source.titleJournal of Behavioral Decision Makingen_US
dc.subjectReliabilityen_US
dc.subjectProbability assessmenten_US
dc.subjectProbability judgmenten_US
dc.subjectSubjective probabilityen_US
dc.titleAn evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over timeen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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