Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy

dc.citation.epage68en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber1en_US
dc.citation.spage50en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber27en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLawrence, M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSayım, K. Z.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-28T11:59:39Z
dc.date.available2015-07-28T11:59:39Z
dc.date.issued2011-03en_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.description.abstractWhile behavioral research on forecasting has mostly examined the individual forecaster, organizationally-based forecasting processes typically tend to rely on groups with members from different functional areas for arriving at ‘consensus’ forecasts. The forecasting performance could also vary depending on the particular group structuring utilized in reaching a final prediction. The current study compares the forecasting performance of modified consensus groups with that of staticized groups using formal role-playing. It is found that, when undistorted model forecasts are given, group forecasts (whether they are arrived at through averaging or by a detailed discussion of the forecasts) contribute positively to the forecasting accuracy. However, providing distorted initial forecasts affects the final accuracy with varying degrees of improvement over the initial forecasts. The results show a strong tendency to favor optimistic forecasts for both the staticized and modified consensus group forecasts. Overall, the role modifications are found to be successful in eliciting a differential adjustment behavior, effectively mimicking the disparities between different organizational roles. Current research suggests that group discussions may be an efficient method of displaying and resolving differential motivational contingencies, potentially leading to group forecasts that perform quite well.en_US
dc.description.provenanceMade available in DSpace on 2015-07-28T11:59:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 10.1016-j.ijforecast.2010.03.001.pdf: 624803 bytes, checksum: 17fde88bc04bf65b964689540d68df9d (MD5)en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.03.001en_US
dc.identifier.issn0169-2070
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/12004
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.03.001en_US
dc.source.titleInternational Journal of Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectJudgmenten_US
dc.subjectForecasten_US
dc.subjectAdjustmenten_US
dc.subjectGroupen_US
dc.subjectRoleen_US
dc.titleInfluence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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