Endogenous effects of hubbing on flow intensities

Location of hub facilities and the allocation decisions in transport networks endogenously affect both the flow intensities and the transportation costs. Since the introduction of the hub location problem to the operations research literature in mid-1980s, many researchers investigated different ways of modelling the effects of hub facilities on the transportation costs. On the other hand, there has been very limited research on their effect on the flow intensities. This study proposes a new approach, inspired by the Bass diffusion model, to forecast the change in the demand patterns generated at different locations as a result of the placement of new hubs. This new model is used in the context of the uncapacitated single allocation p-hub median problem to investigate the effects of endogenous attraction, caused by the spatial interaction of present hubs, on future hub location decisions. Computational results indicate that the location and allocation decisions may be greatly affected when these forecasts are taken into account in the selection of future hub locations.