Future of Turkey in the European Union

Turkey’s future in the European Union (EU) is a subject of intense debate both in Europe and in Turkey today. Although Turkey first applied to join the EU 45 years ago, it is the only candidate country, which has not yet started accession negotiations. On the one hand, any future enlargement that includes Turkey is a controversial topic for the EU, since Turkey would be the only Muslim member in the EU, which has accepted 10 new members in May 2004. On the other hand, it is too late to exclude Turkey from the future of the EU since it has put the issue of the EU accession at the top of its national agenda and is the only candidate country that has completed the Customs Union with the EU. This article aims to explore future scenarios regarding Turkey’s inclusion to or exclusion from the EU and assess their short and long term implications.