An exploratory analysis of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices

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dc.citation.epage578en_US
dc.citation.spage565en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber13en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMuradoğlu, G.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-07T11:03:06Z
dc.date.available2019-02-07T11:03:06Z
dc.date.issued1994en_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.description.abstractThis study reports the results of an experiment that examines (1) the effects of forecast horizon on the performance of probability forecasters, and (2) the alleged existence of an inverse expertise effect, i.e., an inverse relationship between expertise and probabilistic forecasting performance. Portfolio managers are used as forecasters with substantive expertise. Performance of this ‘expert’ group is compared to the performance of a ‘semi‐expert’ group composed of other banking professionals trained in portfolio management. It is found that while both groups attain their best discrimination performances in the four‐week forecast horizon, they show their worst calibration and skill performances in the 12‐week forecast horizon. Also, while experts perform better in all performance measures for the one‐week horizon, semi‐experts achieve better calibration for the four‐week horizon. It is concluded that these results may signal the existence of an inverse expertise effect that is contingent on the selected forecast horizon.en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1099-131X
dc.identifier.issn0277-6693
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/49018
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sonsen_US
dc.source.titleJournal of Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectProbabilistic forecastingen_US
dc.subjectStock price forecastsen_US
dc.subjectCalibrationen_US
dc.subjectInverse expertise effecten_US
dc.titleAn exploratory analysis of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock pricesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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