Establishing initial urban bioclimatic planning recommendations for Ankara to address existing and future urban thermophysiological risk factors

Abstract

Focused on the case of Ankara, human thermophysiological thresholds were investigated in association with typical morphological characteristics to determine the frequency of seasonal Heat/Cold Stress. The study further developed methodical means to better understand the relationship with local radiation exposure within in-situ settings, allowing for the better understanding of seasonal thermophysiological exposure upon human biometeorology. To approach future vulnerability and frequency of thermophysiological stress, daily EURO-CORDEX data was processed to determine Representative Concentration Pathway scenario projections (for air temperature and Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET)). The study highlighted the already significant urban frequencies of heat stress (ranging up to 82.7%) due to all districts witnessing an elevated frequency of low aspect ratios. The fewer mid-range aspect ratios also revealed to be frequently in orientations with higher heat stress susceptibilities (i.e., between 105° and 150°). Bioclimatic planning recommendations were presented for Ankara. Nevertheless, given the high vulnerability for existing/future urban human health and welfare, these recommendations were further associated with the call for immediate heat action plans and heat warning/mapping systems. In these first type of projections for Ankara, even for the milder/stabilization future scenario by 2100, PET based projections revealed frequencies remaining at 100% between 35.1 °C–41.1 °C, with further values exceeding 46.1 °C.