Learning price promotion effects on recurring sell-in purchases from simulated store level sales data

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buir.advisorDayanık, Savaş
dc.contributor.authorKeşrit, Pelin
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-16T08:10:17Z
dc.date.available2021-08-16T08:10:17Z
dc.date.copyright2021-06
dc.date.issued2021-06
dc.date.submitted2021-07-01
dc.departmentDepartment of Industrial Engineeringen_US
dc.descriptionCataloged from PDF version of article.en_US
dc.descriptionThesis (Master's): Bilkent University, Department of Industrial Engineering, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2021.en_US
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (leave 83).en_US
dc.description.abstractWhen a product is put on promotion to increase its sales, this causes a decrease in the sales of another product in the same product group. This phenomenon happens usually when the promoted product is a substitute for the other product. In this study, we focus on the wholesaler’s revenue maximization problem over the given planning horizon. For this purpose, we constructed a Bayesian hierarchical model for the order quantities observed in the store level data for substitutable products. Order quantities are assumed to have Poisson distributions whose means depend on season, prices and previously ordered quantities for all products in the same group. The customers are assumed to have different price sensitivities, and consumption rates implicit in their historical order quantities. Using a hybrid of different Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, we update model parameter posterior distributions and predict each retailer’s order quantities in the future. We verified on simulated sales data that the MCMC methods work.en_US
dc.description.degreeM.S.en_US
dc.description.provenanceSubmitted by Betül Özen (ozen@bilkent.edu.tr) on 2021-08-16T08:10:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ekstra-merged_organized.pdf: 1714286 bytes, checksum: 196100c234cdbf7c52a58b1960286f50 (MD5)en
dc.description.provenanceMade available in DSpace on 2021-08-16T08:10:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ekstra-merged_organized.pdf: 1714286 bytes, checksum: 196100c234cdbf7c52a58b1960286f50 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021-06en
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityby Pelin Keşriten_US
dc.format.extentxi, 83 leaves : illustrations, charts ; 30 cm.en_US
dc.identifier.itemidB157209
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/76429
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherBilkent Universityen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectBayesian hierarchical modelsen_US
dc.subjectMarkov Chain Monte Carloen_US
dc.subjectSubstitutionen_US
dc.subjectPromotionen_US
dc.subjectMarketingen_US
dc.titleLearning price promotion effects on recurring sell-in purchases from simulated store level sales dataen_US
dc.title.alternativeFiyat promosyonlarının toptan satın almalar üzerindeki etkilerinin simule edilmiş mağaza satış verilerinden öğrenilmesien_US
dc.typeThesisen_US

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