Browsing by Subject "Vector autoregression"

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6

Open Access
Do capital flows improve macroeconomic performance in emerging markets? The Turkish experience
(Routledge, 2004) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N. N.
This study examines the effects of capital inflows on the macroeconomic performance in an emerging, small open economy-Turkey. Using monthly data from 1992:01 to 2001:06 and a recursive vector autoregression model, we find that positive innovations in capital inflows appreciate the domestic currency, and increase output and money supply, but decrease interest rates and prices in the short run. We also find that the exchange rate regime does not influence the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic performance. Implications of the findings for policymakers are analyzed.
Open Access
The effects of capital inflows on Turkish macroeconomic performance
(Springer/Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2015) Berument, Hakan; Denaux, Z. S.; Emirmahmutoglu, F.
Capital inflows are important factor affecting macroeconomic performance, such as the real exchange rate, interest rates, output, and price level. However, the components of capital inflows are also important. Capital inflows in the forms of portfolio investment liabilities, foreign direct investment, and other investment liabilities may affect these macroeconomic variables differently. The main focus of this study is to analyze the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in response to the different components of capital inflow shocks for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:1 to 2012:12 by utilizing a vector autoregression model. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Open Access
Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: a cointegration analysis for China
(Elsevier Ltd, 2009) Jalil, A.; Mahmud, S. F.
This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975-2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO2 emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO2 emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO2 emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO2 emissions. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Macroeconometric modelling and Pakistan's economy. A vector autoregression approach
(1992) Chishti, S. U.; Hasan, M. A.; Mahmud, S. F.
Recent applications of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) technique pioneered by Sims, Litterman and Doan has become popular in macroeconomic modelling, particularly when knowledge about 'true' structural relations is absent. This study represents the first attempt to apply such a technique to Pakistani data for ten key macroeconomic variables. Unlike some of the earlier studies on Pakistan's economy our empirical results are intuitive and consistent with the predictions of the standard new neoclassical model. More importantly, based on these results, perhaps, one may also shed light on some of the dominant recurring macroeconomic issues of Pakistan's economy. © 1992.
Open Access
Monetary policy, income and prices: a stability assessment
(Routledge, 2002) Berument, Hakan; Taşçı, H.
This paper assesses the stability of the money-income relationship for seven OECD countries. When the sample was split into two subsamples: pre- and post-1980, the empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that even if the inferences gathered across countries are not always parallel, the inferences gathered from the VAR specification across the samples for each country are mostly parallel.
Open Access
Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model
(Routledge, 2012) Berument, Hakan; Denaux, Z.; Yalcin, Y.
This article estimates the effects of monetary policy on components of aggregate demand using quarterly data on Turkish economy from 1987-2008 by means of structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology. This study adopts Uhlig's (2005) sign restrictions on the impulse responses of main macroeconomic variables to identify monetary shock. This study finds that expansionary monetary policy stimulates output through consumption and investment in the short-run. However, expansionary monetary policy is ineffective in the long-run. © 2012 Taylor & Francis.