Browsing by Subject "VAR"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4

Open Access
The asymmetry in the effects of defense spending shocks on economy : an emprical analysis for Turkey
(2005) Yılmaz, Orhan
The purpose of this study is to asses, whether or not the expansionary and contractionary defense spending shocks have asymmetric effects on the Turkish economy. It is widely believed that decrease in the government spending resulted from decrease in defense spending — although there is no guarantee that savings on defense spending would be applied to deficit reduction—will be followed by decrease in prices providing stability in the market. But contrary to these beliefs there can be asymmetry in the effect of defense spending innovations because of some factors. We have investigated the reactions of macroeconomic variables— real income, prices, money, exchange rate, and employment— to the defense spending innovations by applying vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. The empirical evidence reported here gives evidence on that there is statistically significant asymmetric effect on real income (positive defense spending shock increases the real income) and on price level (positive defense spending shock decreases price level), but there is no statistically significant evidence on the effect of expansionary and contractionary defense spending on: money supply, exchange rate, and employment variables.
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Dedollarization in Turkey after decades of dollarization: a myth or reality?
(Elsevier BV, 2007) Özcan, K. M.; Us, V.
The paper analyzes dollarization in the Turkish economy given the evidence on dedollarization signals. On conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the empirical evidence suggests that dollarization has mostly been shaped by macroeconomic imbalances as measured by exchange rate depreciation volatility, inflation volatility and expectations. Furthermore, the generalized impulse response function (IRF) analysis, in addition to the analysis of variance decomposition (VDC) gives support to the notion that dollarization seems to sustain its persistent nature, thus hysteresis still prevails. Hence, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions apparently contribute to dollarization while dollarization itself contains inertia. Furthermore, dedollarization that presumably started after 2001 has lost headway after May 2006. Thus, it seems too early to conclude that dollarization changed its route to dedollarization. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Impact of probability of crisis on the economy
(2004) Ersal, Eylem
The increased frequency of financial crises in the last two decades led to a surge of interest in search for common elements of those crises and to the creation of early warning systems as instruments to avoid currency crises by predicting the timing of the crises. Along with the early warning systems, observation of increased frequency of crisis called forth deeper research of costs of crisis. This study combines both areas of research in it by employing a new econometric approach in assessing costs of crises. The study utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the impact of the predicted probability of crisis on the economy. Later on, the predicted probabilities of crises obtained are employed in a country-specific VAR system so as to come up with measures of consequences of currency crises. The study predicts crises for a sample of 15 emerging market economies over the period of 1980-2000. The costs of crises analysis for Latin American countries reveals that crises experienced during 1980-2000 caused significant amount of reduction in growth rates of output of those countries. Furthermore, the results suggest that the slowdown in economic activity lasts no more than two years and then the economy recovers.
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The inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship for Turkey: a dynamic framework
(Springer, 2011) Berument, Hakan; Yalcin, Y.; Yildirim, J. O.
This article assesses the interaction between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a dynamic framework for Turkey by using monthly data for the time period 1984-2009. The bulk of previous studies investigating the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty employ Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH)-type models, which consider inflation uncertainty as a predetermined function of innovations to inflation specification. The stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models that we use allow for gathering innovations to inflation uncertainty and assess the effect of inflation volatility shocks on inflation over time. When we assess the interaction between inflation and its volatility, the empirical findings indicate that response of inflation to inflation volatility is positive and statistically significant. However, the response of inflation volatility to inflation is negative but not statistically significant.