Browsing by Subject "Two-stage stochastic program"

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Open Access
A stochastic model for a macroscale hybrid renewable energy system
(Elsevier, 2016) Kocaman, A. S.; Abad, C.; Troy, T. J.; Huh, W. T.; Modi, V.
The current supply for electricity generation mostly relies on fossil fuels, which are finite and pose a great threat to the environment. Therefore, energy models that involve clean and renewable energy sources are necessary to ease the concerns about the electricity generation needed to meet the projected demand. Here, we mathematically model a hybrid energy generation and allocation system where the intermittent solar generation is supported by conventional hydropower stations and diesel generation and time variability of the sources are balanced using the water stored in the reservoirs. We develop a two-stage stochastic model to capture the effect of streamflows which present significant inter-annual variability and uncertainty. Using sample case studies from India, we determine the required hydropower generation capacity and storage along with the minimal diesel usage to support 1 GWpeak solar power generation. We compare isolated systems with the connected systems (through inter-regional transmission) to see the effects of geographic diversity on the infrastructure sizing and quantify the benefits of resource-sharing. We develop the optimal sizing relationship between solar and hydropower generation capacities given realistic cost parameters and real data and examine how this relationship would differ as the contribution of diesel is reduced. We also show that if the output of the solar power stations can be controlled (i.e. spill is allowed in our setting), operating them below their maximum energy generation levels may reduce the unit cost of the system.
Open Access
Value of pumped hydro storage in a hybrid energy generation and allocation system
(Elsevier, 2017) Kocaman, A. S.; Modi, V.
Transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources is inevitable. In this direction, variation and intermittency of renewables can be integrated into the grid by means of hybrid systems that operate as a combination of alternative resources, energy storage and long distance transmission lines. In this study, we propose a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming model for sizing an integrated hybrid energy system, in which intermittent solar generation in demand points is supported by pumped hydro storage (PHES) systems and diesel is used as an expensive back-up source. PHES systems work as a combination of pumped storage and conventional hydropower stations since there is also natural streamflow coming to the upper reservoirs that shows significant seasonal and inter-annual variability and uncertainty. With several case studies from India, we examine the role of high hydropower potential in the Himalaya Mountains to support solar energy generation in the form of pumped hydro or conventional hydro system while meeting the demand at various scales. We show that pumped hydro storage can keep the diesel contribution to meet the demand less than 10%, whereas this number can go up to more than 50% for conventional systems where the streamflow potential is limited compared to the demand. We also examine the role of pumped hydro systems in both isolated and connected systems (through inter-regional transmission lines) and show that the benefit of pumped hydro is more significant in isolated systems and resource-sharing in connected systems can substitute for energy storage. In addition, with the help of the proposed model, we show that the upper reservoir size of a pumped hydro system could be lower than the reservoir size of a conventional hydropower system depending on the demand scale and streamflow availability. This means that, most of the current conventional hydropower stations could be converted to pumped hydropower stations without needing to modify the upper reservoir, leading to a significantly reduced diesel contribution and lower system unit cost.