Browsing by Subject "Stock price forecasting."

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    The Adjustment of security prices to the release of stock dividend/rights offering information
    (1990) Çadırcı, Begüm
    This study investiga.tes market adjustment to the release of stock dividend/rights offering information for the stocks listed in IMKB First market for the period 1986-1989. The adjustment of security prices is analyzed in the context of a market model which takes market related factors into account. Direction and speed of adjustment are measured through residual analysis. Weekly security returns are regressed against returns in the market to find average and cumulative residuals around the event date. The regression model and beta coefficients are found to be significant. The results indicate that the adjustment process is slow and positive cumulative average abnormal returns are observed after the event date. This leads to the rejection of market efficiency in semi strong sense and possibility of an above normal profit.
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    ItemOpen Access
    Prediction of systematic risk: "a case from Turkey"
    (1993) Sağlam, İsmail
    This stjid}^ sugpjosts Bayesian and time-varying models to adjust for the regression tc'ndeiK'y of lietas [iresent in standard asset i)ricing applications. Beta, adjustment techniciues are a])])li('d to the Istcinl.^ul Stock Exchange da.ta. Empirical findings show tlia.t MSE (Mean Square Error) are lowest among all models used in tlie study when log-linear or sciuare-root linear Blume modcds are used and lietas predicted according to Bayesian models have lower MSl·^ tlian unadjusted Ivetas. Also, it is oliserved tha,t inediciency ])art of tlie MSE changes most when various adjustment teclmiques are uschL