Browsing by Subject "Rolling horizon"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3

Open Access
Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente
(Elsevier, 2017) Yuan, S.; Kocaman, A.S.; Modi, V.
For electric grids that rely primarily on liquid fuel based power generation for energy provision, e.g. one or more diesel gensets, measures to allow a larger fraction of intermittent sources can pay-off since the displaced is high cost diesel powered generation. This paper presents a case study of Sao Vicente, located in Cape Verde where a particularly high fraction of wind capacity of 5.950ï¿½MW (75% of the average demand) is installed, with diesel gensets forming the dispatchable source of power. This high penetration of intermittent power is managed through conservative forecasting and curtailments. Two potential approaches to reduce curtailments are examined in this paper: 1) an improved wind speed forecasting using a rolling horizon ARIMA model; and 2) energy storage. This case study shows that combining renewable energy forecasting and energy storage is a promising solution which enhances diesel fuel savings as well as enables the isolated grid to further increase the annual renewable energy penetration from the current 30.4% up to 38% while reducing grid unreliability. In general, since renewable energy forecasting ensures more accurate scheduling and energy storage absorbs scheduling error, this solution is applicable to any small size isolated power grid with large renewable energy penetration.
Open Access
Dynamic lot sizing for a warm/cold process: heuristics and insights
(Elsevier, 2013-09) Toy, A. Ö.; Berk, E.
We consider the dynamic lot sizing problem for a warm/cold process where the process can be kept warm at a unit variable cost for the next period if more than a prespecified quantity has been produced. Exploiting the optimal production plan structures, we develop nine rule-based forward solution heuristics. Proposed heuristics are modified counterparts of the heuristics developed previously for the classical dynamic lot sizing problem. In a numerical study, we investigate the performance of the proposed heuristics and identify operating environment characteristics where each particular heuristic is the best or among the best. Moreover, for a warm/cold process setting, our numerical studies indicate that, when used on a rolling horizon basis, a heuristic may also perform better costwise than a solution obtained using a dynamic programming approach.
Open Access
The effect of economies-of-scale on the performance of lot-sizing heuristics in rolling horizon basis
(Taylor & Francis, 2020-02-26) Kian, R.; Berk, Emre; Gürler, Ülkü; Rezazadeh, H.; Yazdani, B.
In this article, we consider the production planning problem in the presence of (dis)economies-of-scale in production costs on a rolling horizon basis with a fixed forecast horizon. We propose variants of three well-known and commonly used heuristics (Wagner–Whitin, Silver–Meal and Least Unit Cost) adapted for this particular setting. In an extensive numerical study with demands exhibiting stationary, increasing and decreasing trends and seasonality, we demonstrate that having longer forecast horizon is less effective in obtaining more cost effective production plans when the production cost function is convex and also when fixed setup cost is lower, which both are proxy to lack of economies-of-scale.