Browsing by Subject "Regression discontinuity design"

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    The economic impact of recession announcements
    (Elsevier, 2021-03-19) Eggers, A. C.; Ellison, M.; Lee, Sang Seok
    The convention in the news media is to announce a recession if a country experiences two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We exploit the arbitrary threshold implied by this practice to identify the economic impact of recession announcements through a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Estimation results show that news of a recession leads to a discontinuous fall in consumer confidence, consumption growth and final estimates of GDP growth in a panel of countries. The effect is large, robust and statistically significant.