Browsing by Subject "Probit"
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Item Open Access Discouraged workers and the dominance of added worker effect : "the case of Turkey"(2009) Karaoğlan, Hanife DenizThis thesis includes two different studies. In the first chapter, we examine how socioeconomic factors affect the probability of being discouraged for the individuals who do not have a regular job. We find that the factors such as gender, age, marital status, education level, previous work experience, living in urban or rural areas, and Gross Domestic Product per capita level of the region that the individual lives have significant impact on the decision of the individual for leaving the labor force or not. Moreover, the reason of unemployment and the duration of unemployment of the individual who has previous work experience also affect this decision significantly. In the second chapter, we examine the dominance of Added Worker Effect for Turkey. We show that Added Worker Effect is significantly dominant over Discouraged Worker Effect. We also find that, in Turkey, motherhood is an obstacle for married women to participate in labor force. Finally, we conclude that Added Worker Effect is not a completely consequence of the economic crisis in Turkey. Both the income loss of the household head and the risk that household leader may loose his job drive married women into labor force more and cause them to work for more hours.Item Open Access Impact of probability of crisis on the economy(2004) Ersal, EylemThe increased frequency of financial crises in the last two decades led to a surge of interest in search for common elements of those crises and to the creation of early warning systems as instruments to avoid currency crises by predicting the timing of the crises. Along with the early warning systems, observation of increased frequency of crisis called forth deeper research of costs of crisis. This study combines both areas of research in it by employing a new econometric approach in assessing costs of crises. The study utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the impact of the predicted probability of crisis on the economy. Later on, the predicted probabilities of crises obtained are employed in a country-specific VAR system so as to come up with measures of consequences of currency crises. The study predicts crises for a sample of 15 emerging market economies over the period of 1980-2000. The costs of crises analysis for Latin American countries reveals that crises experienced during 1980-2000 caused significant amount of reduction in growth rates of output of those countries. Furthermore, the results suggest that the slowdown in economic activity lasts no more than two years and then the economy recovers.