Browsing by Subject "Probability forecasting"
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Item Open Access The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters(Elsevier, 1992) Benson, P. G.; Önkal D.An experiment examined the effects of outcome feedback and three types of performance feedback-calibration feedback, resolution feedback, and covariance feedback - on various aspects of the performance of probability forecasters. Subjects made 55 forecasts in each of four sessions, receiving feedback prior to making their forecasts in each of the last three sessions. The provision of calibration feedback was effective in improving both the calibration and overforecasting of probability forecasters, but the improvement was not gradual; it occurred in one step, between the second and third sessions. Simple outcome feedback had very little effect on forecasting performance. Neither resolution nor covariance feedback affected forecasters' performances much differently than outcome feedback. However, unlike outcome feedback, the provision of performance feedback caused subjects to manage their use of the probability scale. Subjects switched from two-digit probabilities to one-digit probabilities, and those receiving calibration and resolution feedback also reduced the number of different probabilities they used. © 1992.Item Open Access Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices(1995) Önkal D.; Muradoğlu, G.This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and (3) performance feedback in the form of an overall accuracy score in addition to detailed calibration information. While calibration improved for all the feedback groups, forecasters' skill was found to improve only for the task-formated outcome feedback and performance feedback groups (but not for the simple outcome feedback group). Finally, the forecasters in the performance feedback group also improved their mean slope and mean probability scores, an effect not observed in the other feedback groups. It is suggested that, in a dynamic environment like the stock market, probability forecasting offers distinct advantages by providing an important channel of communication between the forecasters and the users of financial information.Item Open Access Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices(Elsevier, 1996) Önkal D.; Muradoğlu, G.This study aims to explore the differences in various dimensions of forecasting accuracy that may result from the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts. In particular, we examine the effects of using multiple-interval and dichotomous formats on the performance of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices. Probabilistic forecasts of these experts are compared with those provided by semi-experts comprised of other banking professionals trained in portfolio management, as well as with forecasts provided by a novice group. The results suggest that the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts has a differential impact on the performance of experts, semi-experts, and novices. The implications of these findings for financial forecasting are discussed and directions for future research are given.Item Open Access Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting(Elsevier, 2013) Thomson, M. E.; Pollock, A. C.; Gönül, M. S.; Önkal D.Using real financial data, this study examines the influence of trend direction and strength on judgmental exchange rate forecasting performance and consistency. Participants generated forecasts for each of 20 series. Half of the participants also answered two additional questions regarding their perceptions about the strength and direction of the trend present in each of the series under consideration. The performance on ascending trends was found to be superior to that on descending trends, and the performance on intermediate trends was found to be superior to that on strong trends. Furthermore, the group whose attention was drawn to the direction and strength of each trend via the additional questions performed better on some aspects of the task than did their “no-additional questions” counterparts. Consistency was generally poor, with ascending trends being perceived as being stronger than descending trends. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for the use and design of forecasting support systems.Item Open Access Evaluating probabilistic forecasting accuracy of exchange rates(Bilkent University, 1996) Öztin, ŞuleThis study aims to explore various dimensions of probabilistic forecasting accuracy. In particular, the effects of using dichotomous format on the performance of semi-experts’ and novices’ probabilistic forecasts of exchange rates and currencies are examined. Semiexperts are comprised of banking and finance professionals in the finance sector. Novice group consists of MBA students from the Faculty of Business Administration at Bilkent University. The results suggest that the dichotomous format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts has a differential effect on the p>erformance of semi-experts and novices. Implications of these findings for financial forecasting are discussed and directions for future research are given.