Browsing by Subject "Prediction intervals"

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Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios
(John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2019) Goodwin, P.; Gönül, S.; Önkal, D.; Kocabıyıkoğlu, A.; Göğüş, Celile Itır
Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.
Open Access
Judgemental forecasting: a review of progress over the last 25 years
(Elsevier, 2006) Lawrence, M.; Goodwin, P.; O'Connor, M.; Önkal D.
The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement. While previously judgement was thought to be the enemy of accuracy, today judgement is recognised as an indispensable component of forecasting and much research attention has been directed at understanding and improving its use. Human judgement can be demonstrated to provide a significant benefit to forecasting accuracy but it can also be subject to many biases. Much of the research has been directed at understanding and managing these strengths and weaknesses. An indication of the explosion of research interest in this area can be gauged by the fact that over 200 studies are referenced in this review.