Browsing by Subject "Political beliefs"
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Item Open Access Do campaign speeches predict foreign policy? An operational code and leadership trait analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA policies(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği İktisadi İşletmesi, 2023-12-19) Özdamar, Özgür; Halistoprak, B. T.; Young, M.This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.Item Open Access Effects of economic sanctions on political beliefs of the targeted countries’ leaders(Bilkent University, 2021-09) Shahin, EvgeniiaInternational organizations, individual states, and groups of states increasingly often use economic sanctions an alternative tool of foreign policy. While there are multiple studies analyzing effectiveness and economic, political, or humanitarian consequences of sanctions, much less attention is given to their psychological impacts. Presenting one of the rare systematic studies of psychological consequences of sanctions, this dissertation aims to analyze the effects of the economic sanctions on the political beliefs of the leaders of targeted states. Using operational code analysis, this research investigates whether economic sanctions lead to a change in operational codes of the leaders of Iran, Russia, and Syria representing the major cases of sanctions in the last two decades. The research demonstrates that while economic sanctions do not correspond to an immediate cognitive change, they are likely to trigger leaders’ more gradual learning. The results show that the leaders’ rhetoric after sanctions reflected multiple belief changes, some of which were similar across cases. For example, in five out of six analyzed instances, the targeted leaders started to perceive ‘other’ international actors less friendly than before. Presenting the first systematic analysis of a specific external shock on operational codes of leaders in different geographical, temporal, and political settings, this dissertation contributes to the political belief change literature. At the same time this study fills the gap in the research on psychological consequences of sanctions.