Browsing by Subject "Outcome feedback"

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    The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters
    (Elsevier, 1992) Benson, P. G.; Önkal D.
    An experiment examined the effects of outcome feedback and three types of performance feedback-calibration feedback, resolution feedback, and covariance feedback - on various aspects of the performance of probability forecasters. Subjects made 55 forecasts in each of four sessions, receiving feedback prior to making their forecasts in each of the last three sessions. The provision of calibration feedback was effective in improving both the calibration and overforecasting of probability forecasters, but the improvement was not gradual; it occurred in one step, between the second and third sessions. Simple outcome feedback had very little effect on forecasting performance. Neither resolution nor covariance feedback affected forecasters' performances much differently than outcome feedback. However, unlike outcome feedback, the provision of performance feedback caused subjects to manage their use of the probability scale. Subjects switched from two-digit probabilities to one-digit probabilities, and those receiving calibration and resolution feedback also reduced the number of different probabilities they used. © 1992.
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    Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices
    (1995) Önkal D.; Muradoğlu, G.
    This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and (3) performance feedback in the form of an overall accuracy score in addition to detailed calibration information. While calibration improved for all the feedback groups, forecasters' skill was found to improve only for the task-formated outcome feedback and performance feedback groups (but not for the simple outcome feedback group). Finally, the forecasters in the performance feedback group also improved their mean slope and mean probability scores, an effect not observed in the other feedback groups. It is suggested that, in a dynamic environment like the stock market, probability forecasting offers distinct advantages by providing an important channel of communication between the forecasters and the users of financial information.