Browsing by Subject "Options (Finance)--Econometric models."

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    Analyzing the forecast performance of S&P 500 Index Options implied volatility
    (2012) Erdemir, Aytaç
    This study examines the comparative performance of the call and put implied volatility (IV) of at-the-money European-style SPX Index Options on the S&P 500 Price Index as a precursor to the ex-post realized volatility. The results confirm that implied volatility contains valuable information regarding the ex-post realized volatility during the last decade for the S&P 500 market. The empirical findings also indicate that the put implied volatility has a higher forecast performance. Furthermore, from the wavelet estimations it has been concluded that the long-run variation of the implied volatility is consistent and unbiased in explaining the long-run variations of the ex-post realized volatility. Wavelet estimations further reveal that in the long-run put and call implied volatility contain comparable information regarding the realized volatility of the market. However, in the short-run put implied volatility dynamics have better predictive ability.
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    Determinants of the slope of S&P 500 index options : a joint analysis of macroeconomic announcements and private information
    (2014) Yaşar, Burze
    This thesis analyzes the possible determinants of the observed implied volatility skew of S&P 500 index options. The thesis will also examine the high frequency changes in VIX in response to macroeconomic announcements. Finally the effect of presidential announcements on stock market volatility will be investigated.
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    Predictable dynamics in implied volatility smirk slope : evidence from the S&P 500 options
    (2012) Onan, Mustafa
    This study aims to investigate whether there are predictable patterns in the dynamics of implied volatility smirk slopes extracted from the intraday market prices of S&P 500 index options. I compare forecasts obtained from a short memory ARMA model and a long memory ARFIMA model within an out-of-sample context over various forecasting horizons. I find that implied volatility smirk slopes can be statistically forecasted and there is no statistically significant difference among competing models. Furthermore, I investigate whether these implied volatility smirk slopes have predictive power for future index returns. I find that slope measures have predictive ability up to 20 minutes.