Browsing by Subject "Opportunity"

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Open Access
Deterrence and transnational attacks by domestic terrorist organizations: The case of the PKK attacks in Germany
(2015-07) Özkan, Alperen
Building on the “strategy of terrorism” theory (Neumann and Smith, 2008), and the “opportunity and willingness” pre-theoretical framework (Most and Starr, 1989), this thesis analyzes the relationship between offensive deterrence and transnational attacks by domestic terrorist organizations. Counterterrorism studies have been dealing with the effects of deterrence-based and conciliatory counterterrorism measures on the tactics of terrorist organizations and their willingness to commit violence. Transnational attacks represent a tactical response to offensive deterrence for domestic terrorist organizations at the target response stage of their campaign. This tactical response should be analyzed by looking at opportunity and willingness structures of the terrorist organization. Regarding opportunity, I argue that the size of diaspora population from home country increases the likelihood of transnational attacks at the host country. Secondly, I contend that offensive deterrence in home country increases the willingness of the terrorist organization to perpetrate transnational attacks. In order to test these hypotheses, a case study of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) attacks in Germany is conducted using qualitative data and descriptive statistics. The PKK is investigated throughout disorientation stage during 1984-1992 period, target response stage during 1992-1999 period, and partly overlapping with target response, gaining legitimacy stage after 1995. The variance in the number of the PKK attacks in Germany over these stages is explained using official data on the number of the PKK militants killed per year and an original dataset on military operations against the PKK, assembled by surveying the archives of two major Turkish dailies.
Open Access
De Facto states and inter-state military conflicts
(2010) Özpek, Burak Bilgehan
The end of the Cold War has given rise to the number of non-state political actors such as de facto states. While scholarly attention has been given to the concept of sovereignty and to empirical analyses of de facto statehood, de facto states as influential non-state political actors remained theoretically under-studied. This dissertation tackles the research question of how an issue that de facto states causes affects the likelihood of conflict between a parent and an external state. I examine the “opportunity and willingness” pre-theoretical framework of Most and Starr (1989) in order to comprehend how de facto states cause inter-state military conflict. I argue that the process of fighting for de facto statehood and the outcome of becoming a de facto state both create opportunity for the parent and external states. Moreover, internal dynamics in a state are important to understand whether the states are willing to exploit the interaction opportunity de facto states generate. I especially examine regime type and levels of democracy in parent, external and de facto states and argue that when these are all democracies, v likelihood of militarized disputes decrease. Using the comparative method and most similar systems design, I analyze two cases: Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq, Turkey and South Ossetia, Georgia, Russia. Both cases support the arguments of the dissertation. I conclude with a brief summary and implications of the findings for future scholarship.