Browsing by Subject "Operational code analysis"

Now showing 1 - 9 of 9

Open Access
David Ben-Gurion and Moshe Sharett as founders of Israeli strategic culture: an operational code approach
(2022-08) Erğurum, Ahmet
This thesis examines the microfoundations of two Israeli strategic culture schools attributed to the first two prime ministers of Israel, David Ben-Gurion and Moshe Sharett. Historical accounts attribute Ben-Gurion to a realist orientation, while they attribute Sharett to an idealist orientation. However, these orientations rely on interpretive methods and lack empirical testing. By utilizing operational code analysis as a well-established foreign policy analysis tool, I empirically test to what extent these attributions are reflected in their political beliefs. This thesis employs an automated content analysis method via ProfilerPlus software based on the Verbs in Context System (VICS) procedure to code leaders' speeches as data. The results show that Ben-Gurion’s instrumental beliefs (image of Self) reflect a conflictual image of the political universe as a Type DEF realist leader, while Moshe Sharett’s instrumental beliefs reflect the cooperative characteristics of Type A idealist leadership typology, which align with the historical accounts. As for the philosophical beliefs (image of Other), the findings surprisingly show mixed results. Findings reveal that Sharett’s results differ from his historical accounts, while Ben-Gurion’s results confirm his historical accounts. Both Ben-Gurion and Sharett viewed Other as Type B realist leader. This thesis shows how the synthesis between individual-level variables and structural explanations of foreign policy orientations can advance the explanatory value of international relations theories.
Open Access
Effects of economic sanctions on political beliefs of the targeted countries’ leaders
(2021-09) Shahin, Evgeniia
International organizations, individual states, and groups of states increasingly often use economic sanctions an alternative tool of foreign policy. While there are multiple studies analyzing effectiveness and economic, political, or humanitarian consequences of sanctions, much less attention is given to their psychological impacts. Presenting one of the rare systematic studies of psychological consequences of sanctions, this dissertation aims to analyze the effects of the economic sanctions on the political beliefs of the leaders of targeted states. Using operational code analysis, this research investigates whether economic sanctions lead to a change in operational codes of the leaders of Iran, Russia, and Syria representing the major cases of sanctions in the last two decades. The research demonstrates that while economic sanctions do not correspond to an immediate cognitive change, they are likely to trigger leaders’ more gradual learning. The results show that the leaders’ rhetoric after sanctions reflected multiple belief changes, some of which were similar across cases. For example, in five out of six analyzed instances, the targeted leaders started to perceive ‘other’ international actors less friendly than before. Presenting the first systematic analysis of a specific external shock on operational codes of leaders in different geographical, temporal, and political settings, this dissertation contributes to the political belief change literature. At the same time this study fills the gap in the research on psychological consequences of sanctions.
Open Access
European populist radical right leaders’ foreign policy beliefs: An operational code analysis
(Sage Publications, 2020-03) Özdamar, Özgür; Ceydilek, Erdem
Despite the significance of the subject, studies on the foreign policy preferences of European populist radical right leaders are scarce except for a handful of examples. Are European populist radical right leaders more hostile than other world leaders or comparatively friendly? Do they use cooperative or conflictual strategies to achieve their political goals? What are the leadership types associated with their strategic orientations in international relations? Using the operational code construct in this empirical study, we answer these questions and depict the foreign policy belief systems of seven European populist radical right leaders. We test whether they share a common pattern in their foreign policy beliefs and whether their foreign policy belief systems are significantly different from the norming group of average world leaders. The results indicate that European populist radical right leaders lack a common pattern in terms of their foreign policy belief systems. While the average scores of the analysed European populist radical right leaders suggest that they are more conflictual in their world views, results also show that they employ instrumental approaches relatively similar to the average group of world leaders. This article illuminates the microfoundations of strategic behaviour in international relations and arrives at conclusions about the role of European populist radical right leaders in mainstream International Relations discussions, such as idealism versus realism. In this sense, the cognitivist research school complements and advances structural accounts of international relations by analysing leadership in world affairs.
Open Access
Foreign policy operational codes of European populist radical right leaders
(2020-01) Ceydilek, Erdem
Recently, both in scholarly and policy circles, the populist radical right has been a popular and contested topic in Europe. Despite the increasing influence and visibility of European populist radical right (EPRR) parties and leaders, their foreign policy beliefs have not been studied thoroughly by scholars of International Relations (IR) and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), with a few descriptive exceptions. This study aims at filling this gap by linking the FPA and populist radical right literatures with an empirically and theoretically robust analysis. With an operational code analysis of the foreign policy beliefs of nine prominent EPRR leaders, this dissertation first seeks similarities or differences between EPRR leaders and also compare them to the average world leader, and then discuss the underlying reasons for the presence or lack of these similarities and differences. On the one hand, the results show that, in terms of beliefs about the political universe, the EPRR leaders can be grouped into two categories: Where nativism dominates over populism, the EPRR leaders’ beliefs about the political universe are more conflictual and vice versa. On the other hand, in terms of beliefs about foreign policy instruments, the general picture shows that the EPRR leaders are not and will not necessarily be conflictual. This study presents significant findings about the foreign policy beliefs of EPRR leaders and may also provide a basis for future research in this under-studied field.
Open Access
Forum: coding in tongues: developing non-english coding schemes for leadership profiling
(Oxford University Press, 2020) Brummer, K.; Young, M. D .; Özdamar, Özgür; Canbolat, S.; Thiers, C.; Rabini, C.; Dimmroth, K.; Hansel, M.; Mehvar, A.
Over the last twenty years since the introduction of automated coding schemes, research in foreign policy analysis (FPA) has made great advances. However, this automatization process is based on the analysis of verbal statements of leaders to create leadership profiles and has remained largely confined in terms of language. That is, the coding schemes can only parse English-language texts. This reduces both the quality and quantity of available data and limits the application of these leadership profiling techniques beyond the Anglosphere. Against this background, this forum offers five reports on the development of freely available coding schemes for either operational code analysis or leadership trait analysis for languages other than English (i.e., Turkish, Arabic, Spanish, German, and Persian).
Open Access
The strategic culture and political beliefs of Turkey’s far-right leaders: an operational code analysis of Alparslan Türkeş and Devlet Bahçeli
(2022-12) Gül, Kerem
Far-right parties with strong nationalist tendencies have occupied a central role in Turkish politics. Sometimes as the radical voice of the opposition parties, sometimes as the minor coalition partner, Turkish nationalism has found itself a strong grip on the political scene since the 1950’s. Alparslan Türkeş and Devlet Bahçeli are viewed as the pioneer figures in the long journey of Turkish nationalism. Both leaders have served as party leaders for more than two decades through several coups, domestic and international changes. In this regard, understanding their belief systems becomes a must in order to understand the foreign policy culture of the Turkish far-right. By utilizing the operational code, a quantitative leadership assessment method that maps the political beliefs of leaders in order to identify causal mechanisms in foreign policy decisions (George, 1969); (Walker, 1983) the study looks to identify the general patterns of Turkish far-right leaders in foreign policy. While analysing the belief systems of Türkeş and Bahçeli, the thesis also looks at the foreign policy events that the leaders experienced. Thus, the quantitative results that stem from the automated coding system ProfilerPlus will be combined with a qualitative aspect that will shed light to the events that give meaning to the beliefs. Three main sets of hypotheses are tested in the thesis. First, Bahçeli is expected to have more stable views on the nature of political universe; Türkeş is believed to have a more hostile understanding of the political universe compared to Bahçeli; and both leaders are expected to see their political other more hostile than the average world leader. Secondly, the study hypothesizes that Türkeş and Bahçeli select more cooperative strategies during their governmental terms but remain conflictual compared to the average world leader in any setting. Third and finally, the thesis argues for the two leaders to possess lower self-control over the course of historical development compared to the average world leader; and expects them to have similar control levels during the 1990’s –a time period in which both leaders ruled their Parties. The findings of the study reveal that Türkeş and Bahçeli possess high levels of hostility towards the political universe, adopt conflictual strategies compared to the average world leader, and their level of historical control remain slightly over the average world leader. While there are minor differences among the two leaders, a clear party orientation can be spotted in the field of foreign policy. Approaching the strategic culture debate from a theoretical perspective, their typologies correspond with a ‘realist-other’ approach on the nature of political universe alongside ‘mixed self-strategies’ that swing between moderate ‘idealism’ and ‘realism.’ Nevertheless, the findings also show that most deviations from their career averages have occurred during governmental power and brief opportunity windows. In adopting a longitudinal approach, the thesis analyses the belief systems of the two leaders in several time-frames.
Open Access
A study of belief change and stability with operational code analysis: the case of Erdogan
(2021-07) Alpay, İzel Ekin
Objectives. As the significance of a leader’s beliefs in decision-making processes is widely acknowledged, how and when those beliefs change became important aspects in comprehending the foreign policy of a given country. I investigated whether Erdogan’s beliefs changed in his 19 years of power over exogenous shocks. Informed by the Role Theory, I controlled for the impacts of Arab Spring and US-PYD Alliance as two time intervals. Method. I utilized Operational Code Analysis as an at-a-distance content analysis method. I examined Erdogan’s foreign policy speeches between 2003-2021 and generated his operational code construct. Results. Findings suggest that Erdogan’s beliefs somewhat changed over these two external events, although not in the way that theoretical framework of this study predicted. This limited change is measured as statistically significant change after US-PYD Alliance and tools of OCA supported this, demonstrating a leadership typology change. Conclusion. Events of Arab Spring and US-PYD Alliance had an impact on Erdogan’s OCA belief system and the unfold of Turkish Foreign Policy in an altering manner. Role Theory applications are informative in pursuit of belief change.
Open Access
Understanding new middle eastern leadership: an operational code approach
(SAGE Publications, 2018) Özdamar, Özgür; Canbolat, S.
Political Islam and Islamist organizations have broadly gained strength across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the post-Cold War era. Following the Arab uprisings, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), generally viewed as the world’s largest and most influential Islamist organization, has shaped the wider landscape of MENA politics. This study examines MB leadership by comparing M. Morsi of Egypt, R. Ghannouchi of Tunisia, and K. Meshaal of Gaza as examples of Islamist leaders to explain their political belief systems and predict their foreign-policy behavior. We use the operational code approach, a content-analysis software and statistical tests to conduct the study. Results show that the three leaders’ foreign policy beliefs are analogous to the averages of world leaders. Results also partially support the hypothesis that their foreign-policy propensities are similar to each other. We conclude that despite the conventional portrayal of MB leadership, these leaders use negotiation and cooperation to settle their differences in foreign affairs, and the best way to approach them is to engage in a Rousseauvian assurance game that emphasizes international social cooperation. Results also suggest important implications in terms of mainstream international relations theories.
Open Access
Utilization of operational code analysis in studying terrorist organizations
(2010-06) Zugaj, Julita Anna
Operational code analysis constituting a framework for systematic study appears to inaugurate a long-waited approach aiming at understanding, unfolding and potentially anticipating the motivational and behavioral constitutions of non-state terrorist organizations. However, operational code constructs known so far do not appear to be compact in respect of the methodology, which could be utilized within the studies of operational codes of organizations different than governmental. Into the bargain, the scholarly evolution of operational code analysis presents an inconsistency associated with the interchangeability of individual and organizational levels of analysis. Addressing these limitations, this thesis seeks to offer an alternative approach by appreciating the instrumentality of beliefs about organizational structure, its potential for determining the style of decision-making and for anticipation of the decision-makers’ logic of political action. This study concludes with a section, which expands the parameters of operational code research incorporating a structural context and discussion of its implications for research on terrorism.