Browsing by Subject "National trade"
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Item Open Access Measuring the degree of block interdependence between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in Turkey(Routledge, 1998) Sayan, S.; Demir, N.Based on the similarity of productive activities carried out by sectors, national input-output (IO) matrices may be divided into sub-matrices each representing a broader group of sectors called blocks. The strength of linkages among sectors that belong to different blocks would then show the degree of block interdependence. The measurement of this degree is useful in many areas including structural change analysis, evaluation of various support policy alternaticve or for deciding whether a general or a partial equilibrium framework should be used to investigate the effects of an exogenous shock to a particular sector or a block. This paper introduces a technique that can be used to gauge the degree of block interdependence based on simulation results from demand and supply-side IO models. The application of the technique is illustrated for the case of interdependene between agricultural and non-agricultural blocks in Turkey which recently signed a Customs Union Agreement with the EU. The results indicate tha, although Turkey's Agreement covers trade relations in non-agricultural sectors alone, the agricultural sectors must face indirect effects, the magnitude of which depend, to a great extent, on the degree of interdependence between blocks considered here.Item Open Access Money demand, the Cagan model, testing rational expectations vs adaptive expectations: the case of Turkey(Springer, 1999) Metin, K.; Muslu, I.This paper estimates the Cagan type demand for money function for Turkish economy during the period 1986:1-1995:3 and tests whether Cagan's specification fits the Turkish data using an econometric technique assuming that forecasting errors are stationary. This paper also tests the hypothesis that monetary policy was implemented in aiming to maximize the inflation tax revenue. Finally, the Cagan model is estimated with the additional assumption of rational expectations for Turkey for the considered period.Item Open Access On the macroeconomic impact of the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey: a first assessment(Routledge, 2001) Selcuk, F.; Yeldan, E.The devastating earthquake that struck the most densely populated and industrialized area of Turkey on 17 August, 1999 was one of the most damaging natural disasters during this century. This paper is a first attempt to estimate the transition path of the Turkish economy to its new equilibrium after the earthquake. An applied general equilibrium model is utilized to provide an initial assessment and to obtain the second best policy options to mitigate the negative effects of the earthquake. The analytical foundations of the model rest upon intertemporal dynamics as laid out in neoclassical growth theory. Simulation results suggest that the initial impact of the earthquake on GDP may range from -4.5% to +0.8% of GDP, conditional upon policies followed by the government and international donors. The policy implication of the paper is that best outcomes might be reaped via a negative indirect tax (a subsidy financed by foreign aid) to individual sectors to recover their capital losses. On the other hand, an indirect tax to finance the extra fiscal spending would result in an output loss, further deepening the impact of the earthquake on the economy.