Browsing by Subject "Long memory"

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    Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting
    (Elsevier, 2016) Avci-Surucu, E.; Aydogan, A. K.; Akgul, D.
    The purpose of this study is to examine the fractal dynamics of day ahead electricity prices by using parametric and semi parametric approaches for each time zone in a multi-time tariff setting in the framework of bidding strategies, market efficiency and persistence of exogenous shocks. We find that that electricity prices have long term correlation structure for the first and third time zones indicating that market participants bid hyperbolically and not at their marginal costs, market is not weak form efficient at these hours and exogenous shocks to change the mean level of prices will have permanent effect and be effective. On the other hand, for the second time zone we find that price series does not exhibit long term memory. This finding suggests the weak form efficiency of the market in these hours and that market participants bid at their marginal costs. Furthermore this indicates that exogenous shocks will have temporary effect on electricity prices in these hours. These findings constitute an important foundation for policy makers and market participants to develop appropriate electricity price forecasting tools, market monitoring indexes and to conduct ex-ante impact assessment.
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    Effects of monetary policy on the long memory in interest rates: Evidence from an emerging market
    (Elsevier, 2013) Sensoy, A.
    We study the presence of long memory in a variety of interest rates in Turkey by time-varying generalized Hurst exponent. We reveal that adopting inflation targeting cause a sudden and considerable decrease in the long memory in interest rates. The improvement lasts till the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 which is followed with an increased persistence in interest rates. Moreover, degree of long memory increases with maturity which is in contrast to economic theory.