Browsing by Subject "Investments--Mathematical models."

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    The impact of uncertainty on investment : overview
    (2009) Yılmaz, Erdal
    Common consensus in the real option literature is that there is a negative relationship between uncertainty and investment. One of the explanations can be stated that the increased in uncertainty leads to move up the value of waiting and consequently has an adverse effect on investment. Contrary to the existing theory, Sarkar (2000) and Gryglewicz et all (2006) find that this negative relationship is not always correct. The former paper demonstrates that an increase in uncertainty can actually hasten the probability of making an investment under certain condition (when project life is short and level of uncertainty is low) and hence uncertainty has a positive effect on investment. Result of the latter paper is exceptional in the sense that uncertainty may accelerate irreversible investment without building on the convexity of the marginal product of capital. In this thesis, we compare these two papers and investigate whether they support each other or not in the framework of real option theory. Moreover, we made some numerical simulations in order to understand clearly impact of other variables on investment along with uncertainty.
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    Prediction of systematic risk: "a case from Turkey"
    (1993) Sağlam, İsmail
    This stjid}^ sugpjosts Bayesian and time-varying models to adjust for the regression tc'ndeiK'y of lietas [iresent in standard asset i)ricing applications. Beta, adjustment techniciues are a])])li('d to the Istcinl.^ul Stock Exchange da.ta. Empirical findings show tlia.t MSE (Mean Square Error) are lowest among all models used in tlie study when log-linear or sciuare-root linear Blume modcds are used and lietas predicted according to Bayesian models have lower MSl·^ tlian unadjusted Ivetas. Also, it is oliserved tha,t inediciency ])art of tlie MSE changes most when various adjustment teclmiques are uschL