Browsing by Subject "International trade"

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Open Access
Analysis of cross-correlations between financial markets after the 2008 crisis
(Elsevier BV, 2013) Sensoy, A.; Yuksel, S.; Erturk, M.
We analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of the index returns of the main financial markets after the 2008 crisis using methods of random matrix theory. We test the eigenvalues of C for universal properties of random matrices and find that the majority of the cross-correlation coefficients arise from randomness. We show that the eigenvector of the largest deviating eigenvalue of C represents a global market itself. We reveal that high volatility of financial markets is observed at the same times with high correlations between them which lowers the risk diversification potential even if one constructs a widely internationally diversified portfolio of stocks. We identify and compare the connection and cluster structure of markets before and after the crisis using minimal spanning and ultrametric hierarchical trees. We find that after the crisis, the co-movement degree of the markets increases. We also highlight the key financial markets of pre and post crisis using main centrality measures and analyze the changes. We repeat the study using rank correlation and compare the differences. Further implications are discussed.
Open Access
Does exchange rate volatility matter for international sales? Evidence from US firm level data
(Elsevier B.V., 2016) Tunç, C.; Solakoglu, M. N.
We explore the effect of exchange rate volatility on firms’ foreign sales using destination-specific US firm-level data at different quantiles of the conditional distribution. Results show that the sign and significance of the effect depend on the economic conditions, firm characteristics, the sector that the firms operate and the quantile of the conditional distribution. Hence, using aggregated data, utilizing mean-regression methods and ignoring firm-specific factors can explain the mixed results provided by the existing literature.
Open Access
Does trade always harm the global environment? A case for positive interaction
(Oxford University Press, 2000) Alpay, S.
We demonstrate that there are links between international trade and environmental control, heretofore unappreciated, which might substantially alter the efficacy of various governmental policies to control pollution. One concern about national environmental policies is that, whereas the benefits of certain types of abatement might be international or even worldwide, the costs will be borne strictly by the consumers and firms of the country which institutes the policy. As a result, for those types of pollution which are global (such as greenhouse gases) there will be too little pollution abatement. Our first result is that this pessimistic conclusion may be unwarranted. In a 2 x 2 Ricardian model, we also show cases where the non-cooperative contribution of countries to global environmental protection, contrary to the conventional results, exceeds that of the cooperative one due to associated changes in the terms of trade. Thus, international trade is not always a threat to global environment.
Open Access
Domestic road infrastructure and international trade: evidence from Turkey
(Elsevier, 2016) Coşar, A. K.; Demir, B.
Drawing on the large-scale public investment in roads undertaken in Turkey during the 2000s, this paper contributes to our understanding of how internal transportation infrastructure affects regional access to international markets. Using data on international trade of Turkish provinces and the change in the capacity of the roads connecting them to the international gateways of the country, we estimate the distance elasticity of trade associated with roads of varying capacity. Three key results emerge. First, the cost of an average shipment over a high-capacity expressway is about 70% lower than it is over single-lane roads. Second, the present value of a 10-year stream of trade flows generated by a one-dollar investment in road infrastructure ranges between $0.7 and $2. Third, the reduction in transportation costs is greater the more transportation-sensitive an industry is. To the extent that efficient logistics enable countries to take part in global supply chains and exploit their comparative advantages, our findings have important developmental implications. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
Open Access
Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: a cointegration analysis for China
(Elsevier Ltd, 2009) Jalil, A.; Mahmud, S. F.
This study examines the long-run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, income and foreign trade in the case of China by employing time series data of 1975-2005. In particular the study aims at testing whether environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between CO2 emissions and per capita real GDP holds in the long run or not. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology is employed for empirical analysis. A quadratic relationship between income and CO2 emission has been found for the sample period, supporting EKC relationship. The results of Granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to CO2 emissions. The results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run. Trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on CO2 emissions. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Free float and stochastic volatility: the experience of a small open economy
(Elsevier BV, 2004) Selçuk, F.
Following a dramatic collapse of a fixed exchange rate based inflation stabilization program, Turkey moved into a free floating exchange rate system in February 2001. In this paper, an asymmetric stochastic volatility model of the foreign exchange rate in Turkey is estimated for the floating period. It is shown that there is a positive relation between the exchange return and its volatility. Particularly, an increase in the return at time t results in an increase in volatility at time t+1. However, the effect is asymmetric: a decrease in the exchange rate return at time t causes a relatively less decrease in volatility at time t+1. The results imply that a central bank with a volatility smoothing policy would be biased in viewing the shocks to the exchange rate in favor of appreciation. The bias would increase if the bank is also following an inflation targeting policy. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
H-O for H2O: can the Heckscher-Ohlin framework explain the role of free trade in distributing scarce water resources around the Middle East?
(Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2003) Sayan, S.
This paper aims to test econometrically the validity of Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) theory within the context of export patterns of 11 relatively waterabundant and relatively water-scarce countries located in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions. For this purpose, the paper calculates the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and net trade indices (NTI) for 13 sectors in each country and estimates the relationship between RCA values and water requirements of production in each sector. The results are then used to test whether parameter values estimated from this exercise can be linked to water endowments of the countries considered. By helping determine whether the countries in the sample act according to their comparative advantages, econometric results from this innovative application of H–O theory yield interesting policy conclusions.
Open Access
Has European customs union agreement really affected Turkey's trade?
(Routledge, 2007) Neyaptı, B.; Taşkın, F.; Üngör, M.
The numerous discussions regarding the advantages and disadvantages of Turkey's becoming a member of the Customs Union has been inconclusive. The empirical analysis that mostly focus on the changes in the volume of trade without much regard to the conjectural changes have also been insufficient. This study attempts to shed light on this issue in a formal analysis of Turkey's international trade by empirically accounting for the changes before and after the Customs Union Agreement (CUA). In doing so, we explicitly account for the concurrent changes in the macroeconomic environment that may have affected Turkey's trade with the rest of the world. Our empirical findings indicate that CUA has not only positively impacted on Turkey's trade, but also led to changes in the behaviour of both exports and imports with regards to their responsiveness to underlying variables.
Open Access
Heckscher-Ohlin revisited: implications of differential population dynamics for trade within an overlapping generations framework
(Elsevier BV, 2005) Sayan, S.
This paper investigates the implications of the addition of differential population dynamics to a simple 2 × 2 × 2 model of international trade within an overlapping generations framework. The two regions considered are assumed to be identical in every respect except for the way their populations evolve over time. The effects of these demographic differences are explored by comparing autarky and trade on the basis of (i) the analytical solutions obtained for the steady-state values of key variables and (ii) the paths of these variables plotted using numerical results from simulation experiments carried out under two different demographic scenarios. Unequal population dynamics are shown to affect the relative abundance of the factors of production in each region, giving rise to differentials in wage rates and rentals for capital under autarky conditions. This, in turn, causes costs of production and relative prices to differ, creating the grounds for trade in the sense of Heckscher-Ohlin (HO). Yet, the results reveal that static HO results cannot be generalized to hold in a dynamic setting where differences in demographics cause factor proportions to evolve independently of trade over time. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
An integrated evaluation of facility location, capacity acquisition, and technology selection for designing global manufacturing strategies
(Elsevier BV, 1992) Verter, Vedat; Dincer, Mehmet Cemal
Emergence of global markets enhanced the emergence of global firms which have plants in different countries and implement an integrated management style. Due to the intensive competition in global markets, manufacturing performance is conceived as an important strategic weapon. Facility location, capacity acquisition and technology selection decisions constitute means to implement manufacturing strategies. We review the literature in order to contribute to a better understanding of global manufacturing strategies. As a result we observe that an integrated analysis of the location, capacity and technology decisions is vital for the design of effective global manufacturing strategies.
Open Access
International trade and letters of credit: A double-edged sword in times of crises
(Palgrave Macmillan Ltd., 2022-01-05) Crozet, Matthieu; Demir, Banu; Javorcik, Beata
This study argues that the ability to mitigate risks associated with international trade is particularly important at times of heightened uncertainty, such as the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Risk mitigation can be achieved through letters of credit (LCs), trade finance instruments providing guarantees to trading partners. As their use varies across products, exports of some products are more resilient than others during times of increased uncertainty. This situation reverses in times of financial crises when distressed banks may limit the supply of LCs. Our analysis using data on US and EU-15 exports during the Covid crisis and the Global Financial Crisis provides empirical support for these hypotheses. © 2021, International Monetary Fund.
Open Access
Is environmental efficiency trade inducing or trade hindering?
(Elsevier, 2014) Doganay, S. M.; Sayek, S.; Taskin, F.
Global efforts to identify strategies for sustainable economic growth and development underline the need for understanding important links between environmental policies and international trade. In this paper, by constructing an environmental efficiency index for 111 countries from 1980 to 2009, we are able to empirically test for one such link. An improvement in the environmental efficiency index in terms of carbon dioxide emissions reflects a decrease in the cost of efforts to mitigate the environmental costs associated with growth. Countries that improve their environmental efficiency are found to experience strong international trade effects, both through increased exports and increased imports. While the positive link between efficiency improvements and exports is supportive of the Porter hypothesis, the positive link between efficiency improvements and imports is supportive of strong positive income effects on account of environmental efforts. These results, which are robust to alternative estimation strategies, lend strong support to global efforts to improve countries' environmental efficiencies. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
Open Access
Knowledge spillovers, transboundary pollution, and growth
(Oxford University Press, 2002) Alemdar, N. M.; Özyildirim, S.
Trade in natural resources is construed as a dynamic game between North and South. Policies that promote growth in the North also cause knowledge spillovers and transboundary pollution in the South. Cooperative and noncooperative Nash equilibria of this strategic trade game are simulated under various scenarios by parallel genetic algorithms to highlight the distortions in the growth/pollution trade-off. Absent cooperation, both regions benefit when North simultaneously cuts waste and increases knowledge spillovers, impelling South to reciprocate by lower resource prices.
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Laleli'de 1980 sonrası yaşanan gelişmeler ve Laleli’nin küresel ticarete entegrasyonu
(Bilkent University, 2025) Yağcılar, Ahmet Berke; Gülaçtı, Ali Kerem; Yüksel, Doruk Sarp; Cingöz, Melike; Özgül, Nesli Coşku
Bu çalışma, Laleli bölgesinin 1980 sonrası ticari ve sosyal dönüşümünü incelemektedir. Türkiye’nin ekonomik reformları ve Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasının ardından Laleli, Doğu Avrupa ve Orta Asya ile Türkiye arasındaki ticaretin merkezi haline gelmiştir. Bavul ticareti, bölgenin ekonomik yapısında büyük bir ivme yaratmış ancak aynı zamanda kayıt dışı ekonomi, kaçak göçmenler, kara para ve organize suçlar gibi sorunları da beraberinde getirmiştir. Göçmen iş gücü, Laleli’nin ticaretine katkıda bulunurken sosyal yapıda önemli değişimlere yol açmıştır. 2000’lerden itibaren ise uluslararası krizler ve Çin rekabeti, Laleli’deki ticaret hacmini olumsuz etkilemiştir. Ancak bölge, uluslararası ticaretteki stratejik konumunu koruyarak günümüzde daha kurumsal bir yapıya dönüşme çabasındadır. Bu makale, Laleli’nin tarihsel, ekonomik ve sosyal evrimini değerlendirerek, bölgenin Türkiye ve çevre ülkeler arasındaki ekonomik bağların gelişimindeki kritik rolünü ortaya koymaktadır.
Open Access
Managing international student collaborations: An experience report
(IEEE, 2012) Cajander, A.; Daniels, M.; Kultur, Can; Dag, Lori Russell; Laxer, C.
Knowledge and experience from working in international collaborative projects prepares engineering students for their future careers in a global market. Hence this is an important element in higher education, although seldom pr ovide d in the c urr ic ulu m. O ne r e as o n f or this la c k mi g ht be uncertainty in how to manage international collaborations and to create a good learning environment for the development of skills related to international collaborations. Therefore this article describes our experiences from managing international student collaborations including theoretical underpinning for our choices when relevant. Having given the context of, and the strategies for running our tw o collaborations, we provide an analysis of our experiences. This includes observations of differences in the two collaborations, both when due to use of different strategies and when due to different contexts, as well as observations of similarities. With this in mind, we present recommendations for running international student collaborations. © 2012 IEEE.
Open Access
Persistency of Turkish export shocks: a quantile autoregression (QAR) approach
(Springer, 2016) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N. N.; Yasar, P.
This study analyzes the persistency of total and disaggregated Turkish exports for different shock magnitudes using the quantile autoregression (QAR) method in line with Koenker and Xiao (J Am Stat Assoc 99:775–787, 2004). The results suggest that the persistence of shocks are not similar across different quantiles of Total Exports and disaggregated export sectors, indicating an asymmetry in the case of negative and positive shocks across different export sectors. The persistency behavior of Total Exports as well as Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Basic Metals, Raw Materials, Motor Vehicles and Radio & TV exports are asymmetric to negative versus positive shocks, which cannot be captured by traditional unit root tests. Thus, sound interpretation of QAR results is necessary for policy makers to identify shock characteristics and thereby pursue appropriate policies for overcoming adverse impacts on the economy. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Open Access
The position of countries in global value chains
(2019-07) Erdoğan, Oğuzhan
To detect the position of countries in global value chains in a consistent manner, we propose that export and import upstreamness measures of a country should be varying across its trade partners over time. To formalize our argument, we define the notion of bilateral upstreamness between any pair of countries and show how its measure is affected from country-specific factors. Moreover, we incorporate the variables in gravity literature into our estimation equations to account for how the geographical factors can have an impact on their bilateral production line position. Following Antrás et al. (2012), we also consider the hypotheses tested in their paper with our more aggregated and recent data set. Similar to their results, we find that better rule of law, higher level of financial development and investment in human capital lead the export composition of countries to be more final good-oriented in international markets. Finally, we portray Turkey’s production line position in comparison with different country blocks and income groups to illustrate our bilateral analysis.
Open Access
Preface
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2001) Togan, Sübidey; Balasubramanyam, V. N.; Togan, Sübidey; Balasubramanyam, V. N.
This book offers a comparative study of the Central and Eastern European and Turkish economies that analyses the implications of EU enlargement. The contributors discuss issues related to the creation of a legal infrastructure that encourages entrepreneurial initiative, fair competition, market forces and investor confidence. They assess the benefits of following prudent monetary and fiscal policies together with appropriate competition, trade and foreign direct investment policies in Turkey and Central and Eastern Europe.
Open Access
The role of international trade on environmental efficiency: a DEA approach
(Elsevier BV, 2001) Taskin, F.; Zaim, O.
The relationship between trade and environmental conditions receives considerable attention whenever countries are in the process of negotiating trade agreements. In this paper using a non-parametric non-stochastic production frontier approach, we first develop an environmental efficiency index for a sample of high income and low and middle income countries and then examine the role of trade on the changes in environmental efficiency. The paper shows that, in addition to the per capita income which exhibits an environmental Kuznets type relationship, trade-related variables such as trade composition, the share of polluting exports and openness of a country are important determinants of environmental efficiency. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.
Open Access
Scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility
(Elsevier BV, 2001) Gençay, R.; Selçuk, F.; Whitcher, B.
In this paper, we investigate the scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility. Our methodology is based on a wavelet multi-scaling approach which decomposes the variance of a time series and the covariance between two time series on a scale by scale basis through the application of a discrete wavelet transformation. It is shown that foreign exchange rate volatilities follow different scaling laws at different horizons. Particularly, there is a smaller degree of persistence in intra-day volatility as compared to volatility at one day and higher scales. Therefore, a common practice in the risk management industry to convert risk measures calculated at shorter horizons into longer horizons through a global scaling parameter may not be appropriate. This paper also demonstrates that correlation between the foreign exchange volatilities is the lowest at the intra-day scales but exhibits a gradual increase up to a daily scale. The correlation coefficient stabilizes at scales one day and higher. Therefore, the benefit of currency diversification is the greatest at the intra-day scales and diminishes gradually at higher scales (lower frequencies). The wavelet cross-correlation analysis also indicates that the association between two volatilities is stronger at lower frequencies.