Browsing by Subject "Interest rate"

Now showing 1 - 18 of 18

Open Access
Determinants of workers' remittances: Turkish evidence from high-frequency data
(Routledge, 2006) Alper, A. M.; Neyapti, B.
The potential importance of workers remittances (WR) as a relatively stable source of foreign exchange has been growing across the world. We present time-series evidence on the determinants of WR in a large developing country, Turkey. Using yearly data, Aydas et al. (2005) show that WR flows to Turkey are significantly influenced by the growth rate of the home gross domestic product (GDP); the level of GDP in both home and host countries; interest rate differentials between home and host countries; the black market exchange rate; inflation; and political stability. This study utilizes higher-frequency data to further investigate the issue from both long-term and short-term perspectives. The new evidence supports the earlier findings regarding the long-run investment motive, but it also shows that consumption smoothing is an effective short-run motive for sending remittances to Turkey. © 2006 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Effectiveness of the reserve option mechanism as a macroeconomic prudential tool: evidence from Turkey
(Routledge, 2015) Sahin, A.; Dogan, B.; Berument, Hakan
This article assesses the effectiveness of a novel macroprudential tool – the reserve option mechanism (ROM) – which Turkey’s central bank developed during the post-2008 period and has employed to control the risk associated with excessive capital flows. We assess how capital flows have affected economic variable changes since the introduction and usage of the ROM. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey suggests that the tool decreases the effect of capital flow on capital flow (positive shock to capital flow dies out faster or becomes less persistent) and diminishes the effects of capital flow shocks on exchange and interest rates. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.
Open Access
The effects of capital inflows on Turkish macroeconomic performance
(Springer/Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2015) Berument, Hakan; Denaux, Z. S.; Emirmahmutoglu, F.
Capital inflows are important factor affecting macroeconomic performance, such as the real exchange rate, interest rates, output, and price level. However, the components of capital inflows are also important. Capital inflows in the forms of portfolio investment liabilities, foreign direct investment, and other investment liabilities may affect these macroeconomic variables differently. The main focus of this study is to analyze the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in response to the different components of capital inflow shocks for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:1 to 2012:12 by utilizing a vector autoregression model. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York.
Open Access
Effects of the real exchange rate on output and inflation: evidence from Turkey
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2003) Berument, Hakan; Pasaogullari, M.
This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary.
Open Access
Exchange rate risk and interest rate: a case study for Turkey
(Springer New York LLC, 2003) Berument, Hakan; Günay, A.
This paper examines the effect of exchange rate risk on interest rates within the uncovered interest rate parity condition for Turkey. When the interest rate is measured with the Treasury auction interest rate and the exchange rate risk is measured with the conditional variance of the exchange rate, then we found that there is a positive relation between the exchange rate risk and interest rate with the data from December 1986 to January 2001.
Open Access
Exchange rate risk and interest rate: a case study for Turkey
(2001) Günay, Aslı
This thesis examines the effect of exchange rate risk on interest rates within the uncovered interest rate parity condition for Turkey. When the interest rate is measured with the Treasury auction interest rate and the exchange rate risk is measured with the conditional variance of the exchange rate, then we found that there is a positive relation between the exchange rate risk and interest rate with the data from 1986:12 to 2000:01.
Open Access
The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis
(Routledge, 2002) Berument, Hakan; Jelassi, M. M.
This paper tests whether the Fisher hypothesis holds for a sample of 26 countries by assessing the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation rates taking into consideration the short run dynamics of interest rates. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that there is a one-to-one relationship between the interest rate and inflation for more than half of the countries under study.
Open Access
The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis
(1999) Jelassi, Mohamed Mehdi
There is a long tradition of testing the Fisher hypothesis on the long run relationship between inflation and nominal interest rates. In this study, we examine the before tax strong version of the Fisher hypothesis for a sample of countries, in an attempt to extend the available literature. Using an error correction modeling approach suggested by Moazzarni [30] which allows for direct estimates of the long run coefflcients, we show that the strong version of the Fisher hypothesis tends to hold for more than half of the countries under study. In addition to that we point to the fact that under complete financial deregulation, there is a higher chance for the Fisher hypothesis to hold in line with the suggestion of Olekalns [33].
Open Access
The impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rates in the UK
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 1999) Berument, Hakan
This paper assesses the effect of expected inflation and inflation risk on interest rates within the Fisher hypothesis framework. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic models are used to estimate the conditional variability of inflation as a proxy for risk. With the UK quarterly data from 1958:4 to 1994:4, we found that both the expected inflation and the conditional variability of inflation positively affect the UK three-month Treasury-bill rate.
Open Access
Impact of macroeconomic indicators on short selling: evidence from the Tokyo stock exchange
(Elsevier Inc., 2012) Solakoğlu, M. Nihat; Orhan, Mehmet; Gregoriou, G. N.
This chapter examines the existence of cointegration between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index to investigate the permanent relation between the two. For this purpose, the Japanese financial markets with monthly data from November 2005 to October 2009 were examined to document if a causality relation exists between short selling volume and macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, bond yield, and exchange rate, as well as the Nikkei 225 Index. Given the characteristics of Japanese short sellers, it is expected that a causal relationship exists between macroeconomic variables and short selling volume, which indicates that Japanese short sellers are informed traders. Based on this finding, it can also be assumed indirectly that the tipping hypothesis does not apply to Japanese short sellers. In addition, the existence of cointegration between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index are investigated to determine whether a long run relationship exists between the two. The study found that the short selling volume, the Nikkei 225 Index, and the exchange rate have unit roots and are thus nonstationary; however, the bond yield rate is stationary. Using the Granger causality test, it also showed bidirectional causality between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index. However, there is no causality between short selling volume and GDP, as well as bond yield rate. The findings also document that exchange rate Granger causes a short selling volume, but short selling volume does not Granger cause exchange rate. These findings thus indicate that the short sellers' information set contains the Nikkei 225 Index and exchange rate movements, but not macro fundamentals. The results also document the permanent long run relationship between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: Is the Fisher relation universal?
(Routledge, 2007) Berument, Hakan; Ceylan, N. B.; Olgun, H.
This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for the G7 countries and 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate a version of the GARCH specification of the hypothesis for all countries included in the sample. We also test the augmented Fisher relation by including the inflation uncertainty in the equation. The simple Fisher relation holds in all G7 countries but in only 23 developing countries. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and inflation uncertainty for six of the G7 and 18 of the developing countries and this relationship is negative for seven developing countries.
Open Access
Macroeconomics of twin-targeting in Turkey: analytics of a financial computable general equilibrium model
(Routledge, 2008) Telli, C.; Voyvoda, E.; Yeldan, E.
The paper provides an overview of the post-1998 Turkish economy and constructs a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to illustrate the real and financial sectoral adjustments of the Turkish economy under the conditionalities of the 'twin targets': on primary surplus to gross national product (GNP) ratio and on the inflation rate. We further utilize the model to study three sets of issues: (i) the critical role of the expanded foreign capital inflows in resolving the macroeconomic impasse between the disinflation motives of the central bank and imperatives of debt sustainability and fiscal credibility of the ministry of finance; (ii) reduction of the central bank's interest rates, and (iii) a labor market reform of reducing payroll taxes. Our simulation results suggest that the current monetary strategy, which involves a heavy reliance on foreign capital inflows along with a relatively high real rate of interest, is effective in bringing inflation down; yet it suffers from increased cost of interest burden to the public sector, and strains fiscal credibility. In contrast, given the ex ante constraints of the domestic economy in the short run, an alternative heterodox policy of reduction of the central bank interest rate and lowering of the payroll tax burden in labor markets indicate strong employment and growth effects along with strengthened fiscal credibility.
Open Access
The missing link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2005) Berument, Hakan; Kilinc, Z.; Ozlale, U.
In the literature, there is no consensus about the direction of the effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates. This paper states that such a result may stem from differentiation in the sources of the uncertainties and analyzes the effects of different types of inflation uncertainties on a set of interest rates for the UK within an interest rate rule framework. Three types of inflation uncertainties - impulse uncertainty, structural uncertainty and steady-state uncertainty - are derived by using a time-varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification. It is shown that the impulse uncertainty is positively and the structural uncertainty is negatively correlated with the interest rates. Moreover, these two uncertainties are important to explain short-term interest rates for the period of inflation targeting era. However, this time, the impulse uncertainty is negatively and the structural uncertainty is positively correlated with the overnight interbank interest rates, which is consistent with the general characteristic of the inflation targeting regimes. Lastly, the evidence concerning the effect of the steady-state inflation uncertainty on interest rates is not conclusive. © Scottish Economic Society 2005.
Open Access
Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under the monetary conditions index: an alternative policy rule
(Routledge, 2004) Us, V.
This study analyses monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey using a small structural macroeconomic model. The core equations of the model consist of aggregate demand, wage-price setting, uncovered interest rate parity, foreign sector and a monetary policy rule. The aim of the paper is to analyse the disinflation path, the output gap, the output level, the exchange rate and the interest rate, and also the output-inflation variance frontier of the economy under various scenarios. The first scenario assumes that a standard Taylor rule is implemented as the policy rule. In the alternative scenario, instead of the standard Taylor rule, the MCI, Monetary Conditions Index - combination of the changes in the short-term real interest rate and in the real effective exchange rate in a single variable - is used as a policy instrument. The results indicate that the economy stabilizes much more quickly and shows significantly less volatility under this new setting. Therefore, the paper concludes that the policymakers should consider using MCI as an instrument when conducting monetary policy. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.
Open Access
Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory
(Elsevier BV, 2006) Gençay, R.; Selçuk, F.
We examine the dynamics of extreme values of overnight borrowing rates in an inter-bank money market before a financial crisis during which overnight borrowing rates rocketed up to (simple annual) 4000 percent. It is shown that the generalized Pareto distribution fits well to the extreme values of the interest rate distribution. We also provide predictions of extreme overnight borrowing rates using pre-crisis data. The examination of tails (extreme values) provides answers to such issues as to what are the extreme movements to be expected in financial markets; is there a possibility for even larger movements and, are there theoretical processes that can model the type of fat-tails in the observed data? The answers to such questions are essential for proper management of financial exposures and laying ground for regulations. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
The policy challenge with floating exchange rates: Turkey's recent experience
(Springer New York LLC, 2005) Selçuk, F.
This paper evaluates the developments in the Turkish economy in light of the Central Bank of Turkey's (CBT) policies during a recent period of floating exchange rate system (March 2001-July 2003). It is found that the CBT was effective in containing volatility and reducing the average inflation rate while there was a strong recovery of output. However, there are accumulated risks in the economy. Particularly, the extreme appreciation of the Turkish lira during this period and the record level of real interest rates give the impression that the current state of the economy is fragile. Unless the government accelerates the structural reform process and pursues sound fiscal policies to reduce the public sector borrowing requirement and the debt ratio, an adverse shock to the system may trigger a reversal of fortune. © 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.
Open Access
Public sector pricing behavior and inflation risk premium in Turkey
(Routledge, 2003) Berument, Hakan
Turkey has had a high level of inflation since the mid-1970s. Governments use various fiscal and monetary policy tools to control inflation. In addition to these tools, governments also attempt to control inflation by regulating the prices of publicly produced goods and services. Governments either use the publicly produced goods' prices as a nominal anchor to decrease inflation, for example, the July 1997 and early 2000 anti-inflation programs, as a part of their general anti-inflation programs, or they try to postpone price increases of publicly produced goods and services until after elections, as was the case prior to the 1991, 1995, and 1999 elections. However, governments ultimately had to correct the lower prices in the public sector, mainly to avoid losses in the state-owned enterprises. In accordance with this, Turkish data suggest that, on average, price increases in the private and public sectors are approximately the same; however, these price increases are less frequent in the public sector than in the private sector. The purpose of this article is to show that this infrequency of price changes in the public sector increases the volatility of the general price level, causing uncertainty in forecasting general price level, and this, in turn, increases interest rates.
Open Access
What Fisher knew about his relation, we sometimes forget
(Elsevier BV, 2008) Arnwine, N.; Yigit, T. M.
Expected consumption growth increases the real interest rate as one tries to smooth consumption over time. We demonstrate that placing it in the Fisher relation 1) is consistent with the Euler equation governing the purchase of nominal bonds, 2) explains observed procyclicality of the real interest rate. 3) is supported empirically, and 4) provides an alternative method for estimating the consumer's degree of relative risk aversion. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.