Browsing by Subject "Incomplete Information"
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Item Open Access Cash inventory management at automated teller machines under incomplete information(Bilkent University, 2010) Altunoğlu, YaşarAutomated Teller Machines are one of the most important cash distribution channels for the banks. Since branches have more information about the ATM cash demand compared to headquarters, cash inventory at ATMs is usually managed by the branches. Inventory holding and stock-out costs, however, are incurred by the headquarters. We examine the headquarters’ cash inventory management problem for out of working hours under a Newsboy type setting. In this setting, inventory replenishment is not possible during the period and the headquarters cannot fully observe the amount of stock-outs. The headquarters seeks an inventory policy that would lead the branch to make ordering decisions to minimize the headquarters’ cost. We examine three policies: (M) policy with a lump-sum stock-out cost charged at the end of period, (t, M) policy with a lump-sum stock-out cost charged at time t within the period and (t, L, p) policy with a unit stock-out cost charged at time t within the period for inventory below L. Numerical analysis show that checking the inventory during the period - (t, M) and (t, L, p) policies - can lead to important reductions in cost for the headquarters.Item Open Access The super power versus a regional power : a game theoretical approach to the current nuclear tension between the US and Iran(Bilkent University, 2009) Aydın, SabriThis thesis investigates how the nuclear tension between Iran and the US is likely to result. Game theoretical analyses are applied in order to develop the argument of this study. First, the reason why states pursue nuclear weapons and the factors that push Iran to go nuclear are analyzed. Second, the mutual threat perceptions between the US and Iran are analyzed and the effect of such perceptions on Iran’s nuclear venture is investigated. Third, three US policy options, namely diplomacy, military operation and stimulating a regime change, are elaborated. Fourth, the interaction between the US and Iran is analyzed by using two different forms of games, complete and incomplete information, and two different methods, backwards induction and Bayes’s theorem. It is concluded that Iran’s nuclear pursuit is mostly security based and the nuclear tension between Iran and the US creates a vicious circle. While Iran is going for nuclear weapons primarily to protect itself from the external threats, the US challenge to Iran’s nuclear pursuit poses a security threat to Iran and makes Iranians much more eager to develop their own nuclear weapon capability.