Browsing by Subject "Imperfect information"

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Open Access
Auction based scheduling for distributed systems
(International Institute of Informatics and Systemics, 2006) Zarifoğlu, Emrah; Sabuncuoğlu, İhsan
Businesses deal with huge databases over a geographically distributed supply network. When this is combined with scheduling and planning needs, it becomes too difficult to handle. Recently, Fast Consumer Goods sector tends to consolidate their manufacturing facilities on a single supplier serving to a distributed customer network. This decentralized structure causes imperfect information sharing between customers and the supplier. We model this problem as a single machine distributed scheduling problem with job agents representing the customers and the machine agent representing the supplier. We developed Auction Based Algorithm by exploiting the opportunity to use game theoretic approach to solve the problem in the decentralized utility case. Results of our extensive computational experiments indicate that Auction Based Algorithm converges to the upper bound found for the total utility measure.
Open Access
Optimal discretionary monetary policy under persistent-transitory confusion over cost shock
(2023-07) Taşkan, Hilal
In this study, I model the debated statements of Federal Reserve regarding transitory inflation in New Keynesian context and imperfect information about cost shock, where it is formulated as sum of unobserved persistent and transitory components. Specifically, I consider the case, in which policy maker and private agents are uninformed about the components and subject to a gradual recognition from observation using a Kalman filter. Policy maker solves the inference problem to learn the components, and, in turn, private agents rely on central bank speeches to learn policy maker’s inferences. Then, based on policy maker’s estimation, private agent’s problem and, so New Keynesian relations are formulated. The responses with filtered variables incorporate progressive learning. In particular, when the true realization of the shock and its perception is persistent, the increase (decline) in inflation (output), therefore in interest rate is less compared to that of perfect information responses, creating a relatively desirable outcome for the policy maker. If instead shock is perceived as transitory and communicated as such, which was the case in Fed’s statements, the response of inflation, hence the required policy response is significantly more pronounced. This leads me to conclude that it may not be the best response to announce that shock is transitory while it is not the case. Then, I continue studying welfare loss under discretionary policy when the estimation and the actual realization is persistent. I find that loss under imperfect information with an inferred persistent shock is smaller relative to that of perfect information when variance of the noise increases, and shock becomes less persistent. Lastly, I extend the model by introducing a signal on transitory component.