Browsing by Subject "Granger causality"

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5

Open Access
Application of the twin-deficits hypothesis to the Turkish case
(1993) Yılmaz, Alper
This study detects the twin-deficits hypothesis, the mutual effects of government budget deficits and merchandise trade deficits on each other through real interest rates and real effective exchange rates, in the Turkish economy. One-sided Granger causality analysis and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions for multivariate analysis for each are used for 1987-92 monthly data. The government budget deficits are found to affect trade deficits not directly, but through the mechanism over real interest rates and real effective exchange rates. Nevertheless, the merchandise trade deficits seem to affect budget deficits directly.
Open Access
Category-selective top-down modulation in the fusiform face area of the human brain during visual search
(IEEE, 2017) Dar, Salman Ul Hassan; Çukur, Tolga
Several regions in the ventral-temporal cortex of the human brain are thought to have representations of specific categories of objects. Furthermore, a distributed network of frontal and parietal brain regions is implicated in attentional control. It is assumed that during visual search, attention-control regions send top-down signals to the target category-selective areas to bias the processing in favour of the attended object category. However, little is known about such causal interactions during naturalistic visual search. Here we assess the influence of attention-control brain regions on a well-known face selective area fusiform face area (FFA) during natural visual search using Granger causality analysis. Our results indicate that attending to humans enhances the influence of attention-control regions on the fusiform face area.
Open Access
Dynamic linkages of current account deficits and unemployment: evidence from Turkey
(Kaerntner Botanikzentrum, 2015) Özer, M.; Yeldan, A. E.
In this paper, we empirically test the causal relationship between current accountdeficits and unemployment in Turkey over 2000Q1–2012Q1. Using Johansenco-integration and Granger-causality analyses based on a corresponding vector error correction model, we studied many alternative specifications of the nexus between unemployment and external deficits in an open macroeconomyenvironment. Our results reveal the presence of unidirectional causality runningfrom current account deficits to unemployment. Furthermore, based on theimpulse response variance decomposition analysis, we find that unemploymentexplains little variation of current account deficits, although current accountdeficits explain a substantial fraction of the variation in unemployment. Weinterpret these findings as evidence of the structural sources of unemployment being embedded under the deepening external fragility of the Turkish economyover the 2000s.
Open Access
Efficiency of Istanbul Stock Exchange with respect to macroeconomic variables: a study using Granger causality
(1996) Özer, Murat
The purpose o f this study is to test the efficiency of Turkish security market with respect to a number o f macroeconomic variables, using multivariate Granger causality tests in conjunction with Akaike's final prediction error(FPE) criterion. The data set includes the daily values o f the Istanbul Exchange Index and macroecononomic variables between the years 1988-1994. The testing period is divided into sub-periods, based on the levels o f trading volume which represents the different developmental phases of the market. The empirical results showed that the macroeconomic variables effecting the stock prices change through time, in accordance to the changing market characteristics. Therefore, the success of any model over the estimation period does not guarantee that the same model will perform well outside the testing period.
Open Access
Finance growth nexus following the 2001 crisis in Turkey
(2012) Songül, Hüseyin
Diverse economic growth rates of countries have engaged the attention of economists. Recently, researchers have studied the role of financial development to explain the cross-country differences in growth. In particular, the direction of causality between financial sector development and economic growth has been analyzed in the context of two conflicting hypotheses. According to supply-leading hypothesis financial development leads to economic growth, however demandfollowing hypothesis claims that the direction of the relationship runs from economic growth to financial development. Beside these two competing hypotheses, bi-causality between economic growth and financial development has been argued in the literature as well. This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey for the period 2002:1-2011:2, using the technique of Granger causality. Our model reveals that there is a bidirectional long run relationship between the economic growth and banking sector development. On the other hand, the long run causality between the stock market development and economic growth is from stock market development to economic growth.