Browsing by Subject "Foreign exchange rates--Mathematical models."

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Open Access
ECB policy response to the Euro
(2011) Demir, İshak
The exchange rate is an important part of transmission mechanism in the determination of monetary policy because movements in the exchange rate has signiÖcant e§ect on the macroeconomy. Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the movements in exchange rate has some di¢ culties due to the simultaneous response of monetary policy on the exchange rate and the possibility that both variables respond several other variables. This study will use an identiÖcation method based on the heteroscedasticity in the high-frequency data. In particular, shifts in the importance of exchange rate relative to monetary policy shocks, and the estimated changes in the covariance between the shocks that result, allow us to measure the reaction of interest rates to changes in exchange rates. This study comes up with unbiased estimates with heteroscedasticity based identiÖcation approach and results of this paper suggest that ECB systematically respond to the exchange rate movements but that quantitative e§ects are small. The empirical results indicate that a 1 point rise (fall) in the exchange rate tends to decrease (increase) the three-month interest rate by around 20 basis points. Small and negative reaction coe¢ cient implies that ECB may respond to the movements in exchange rate only to the extent warranted by their impact on the macroeconomy, since it a§ects the expected ináation and future output path.
Open Access
Panel cointegration analysis to exchange rate determination : monetary model versus Taylor rule model
(2009) Kutlu, Vesile
This thesis examines the validity of the monetary model and the Taylorrule model in determining exchange rates in the long run. The monetary model and the Taylor-rule model are tested using the US dollar exchange rates over 1980:01-2007:04 periods for 13 industrialized countries. Johansen Fisher Panel cointegration technique provides evidence that there exist a unique cointegration relationship between the nominal exchange rates and a set of fundamentals implied by the monetary model and the Taylor rule model. The cointegrating coefficient estimates for the monetary model and the Taylor rule model are found by using panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator. The estimation results show that the effects of the monetary and the Taylor rule fundamentals on exchange rates are not the same as what the theory suggests. Overall, the findings of this thesis imply that there is no support for the monetary model and there is little support for Taylor-rule model in explaining exchange rates.