Browsing by Subject "Expected Inflation"

Filter results by typing the first few letters
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Common stock returns and inflation : an investigation of İstanbul Securities Exchange
    (1990) Caglı, R. T. Kartal
    This study investigates the existence of a relaticriship cet^^ıc-eгı returris or. conmon stccks and expected inflation i' lurke.. Ihie relationship: is tested within the fram£?v^ork of Fishe- Effect wising a single ei.i£^tion rezression mcDdel. The regressior» pa.raniete'~E are tested tc see whether an increase in expectez inflatizn is accoTip£vnjer by an ec-ic.l increase in nominal returrs. leavi-i the real rate cznstarit. T^x? test results sho-j that, when actual inflation rates are used to proxy expected inflaticr. hypothesis of existence c* Fisher Effect on stock returns is rejected; arc that it fails to be rejected whien Box Jenkins red^esentatizr. of inflatioTi IS used as the proxy. The dichotoory is Sviderice c' t^ie fact that ihz test results for Fisher Effect c"e n)ctr-cco3ogy dependent, and thiat inferences on Fisher's Theor~y snould t>z made with cauticr..
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Do inflation targeting regimes reduce inflation uncertainty? : evidence from five industrilized and five emerging countries
    (2004) Ertürk, Burak
    In this thesis, using a time-varying parameter model with GARCH specification, it was investigated whether there is a structural break in expected inflation and two types of inflation uncertainties –structural and impulse uncertainty- for five industrialized and five emerging countries after the implementation of inflation targeting. Many industrialized and emerging countries attempted to stabilize their price levels with the help of a monetary discipline satisfied by the features of inflation targeting. These regimes are thought to lower the uncertainties regarding inflation dynamics. This methodology allows decomposing two types of uncertainties and it was claimed that successful implementation of inflation targeting removes these uncertainties. Two types of tests were employed to detect this claim: A simple non-parametric test which examine whether the changes in the mean and the variance of expected inflation along with two types of inflation uncertainty are statistically significant; and a parametric test whether there has been a shift in mean or a shift in the trend for expected inflation and two types of uncertainties. Both non-parametric and parametric test results indicate that the inflation targeting regimes are particularly successful in reducing expected inflation while there is less evidence that implementation of inflation targeting reduce inflation uncertainty.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    The relationship between stock returns and inflation in Turkey 1987-1993
    (1994) Tüzün, Osman N.
    ■L'ljis study investigates the existence of a negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation, which is observed in other industrialized countries, and a possible explanation for this relationship, in Turkey. This relationship between stock returns and inflation is tested in the light of Kama's "Proxy Effect Hypothesis". This hypothesis suggest that the negative relation between stock returns and inflation is in fact proxying for a more fundamental relationship between real stock returns and real activity. The empirical investigation of the data revealed that the there is a significant negative relationship between forecasts of real activity and inflation. Also the results suggest that there is a positive, although insignificant, relationship between real stock returns and real activity. These two results can be combined to state that the "Proxy Effect Hypothesis" also holds for Turkey.