Browsing by Subject "Exchange rates"

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8

Open Access
The choice of monetary policy tool(s) and relative price variability: evidence from Turkey
(A N S I Network, 2009) Berument, Hakan; Sahin, A.; Saracoglu, B.
The aim of this study is to assess any regularity relative price dispersion for the effect of monetary policy tool selection. Central banks use tools such as interbank rate and exchange rate when pursuing their (monetary) policies. The selected tools affect economic variables differently. By using Turkish monthly data for the 1988:2-2008:2 period, this study suggests that pure policies (such as interbank rate only or exchange rate only) increase relative price variability more than mixed policies, where the monetary authorities use the above tools simultaneously. © 2009 Asian Network for Scientific Information.
Open Access
Effective transfer entropy approach to information flow between exchange rates and stock markets
(Elsevier Ltd, 2014) Sensoy, A.; Sobaci, C.; Sensoy, S.; Alali, F.
We investigate the strength and direction of information flow between exchange rates and stock prices in several emerging countries by the novel concept of effective transfer entropy (an alternative non-linear causality measure) with symbolic encoding methodology. Analysis shows that before the 2008 crisis, only low level interaction exists between these two variables and exchange rates dominate stock prices in general. During crisis, strong bidirectional interaction arises. In the post-crisis period, the strong interaction continues to exist and in general stock prices dominate exchange rates.
Open Access
Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis
(Elsevier Inc., 2017) Ben Omrane, Walid; Savaşer, Tanseli
We investigate the volatility reaction to macroeconomic news in major currency markets during the recent global financial crisis. We first present an alternative method for determining the changes in economic states by endogenously estimating crisis thresholds. Second, we assess which macroeconomic indicator gave the earliest warning signal for the upcoming contraction. Third, we investigate whether there is a systematic change in the volatility reaction of exchange rates to news during the crisis period. We find that the estimated logistic transition function based on the housing starts data exhibits the earliest warning signal compared to other indicators. Our results suggest that although volatility response to most news indicators is larger in expansion, currency market reaction to new home sales and Fed funds rate news is larger in the crisis period. We attribute this finding to the context-specific relevance of the housing and credit sectors in the evolution of the global financial crisis.
Open Access
Free float and stochastic volatility: the experience of a small open economy
(Elsevier BV, 2004) Selçuk, F.
Following a dramatic collapse of a fixed exchange rate based inflation stabilization program, Turkey moved into a free floating exchange rate system in February 2001. In this paper, an asymmetric stochastic volatility model of the foreign exchange rate in Turkey is estimated for the floating period. It is shown that there is a positive relation between the exchange return and its volatility. Particularly, an increase in the return at time t results in an increase in volatility at time t+1. However, the effect is asymmetric: a decrease in the exchange rate return at time t causes a relatively less decrease in volatility at time t+1. The results imply that a central bank with a volatility smoothing policy would be biased in viewing the shocks to the exchange rate in favor of appreciation. The bias would increase if the bank is also following an inflation targeting policy. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Local, global and regional shocks indices in emerging exchange rate markets
(Elsevier BV, 2021-05) Erdem, F. P.; Geyikçi, Utku Bora
Impact of exchange rate shocks on emerging market economies have been studied extensively; however, what is the origin of those shocks remains unanswered in the literature. The main aim of this paper is to fill this gap. We identify local, regional and global shocks in exchange rate markets for 19 major EMEs on a daily basis by using forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. We find an asymmetry on the effects of both local and global shocks and also show that depreciating effects of both local and global shocks dominate the appreciating effects for almost all countries sampled. Moreover, we find that the external vulnerability indicators and financial development indicators are the main sources of the level of shocks.
Open Access
The monetary approach to exchange rate determination: an empirical evidence from Turkey
(1993) Mutluay, Hakan
In this study, the determination of exchange rates in Turkey is examined by using the monetary approach to exchange rate determination. To provide a theoretical basis, the basic assumptions and the variants of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination are considered. In the empirical test of the monetary approach in Turkey, quarterly data for the observation period 1980-1992 is used. Turkey followed a more liberal exchange rate policy after 1980s. The findings o f this study show that the data does not support the monetary exchange rate determination theory in Turkey. The exchange rate, especially T.L./ U.S. doUar, has a random walk nature and a trace o f unit root
Open Access
Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB
(Elsevier, 2014) Demir, İ.
The exchange rate is an important part of the transmission mechanism in the determination of monetary policy because movements in the exchange rate have significant effect on the macroeconomy. It can be difficult to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the movements of the exchange rate, due to the simultaneous response of monetary policy to the exchange rate and the possibility that both variables respond to several other variables. This study addresses these problems by using an identification method based on the heteroscedasticity in the high-frequency data. The results in this paper suggest that the ECB systematically responds to exchange rate movements but that quantitative effects are small. Such a significant but small reaction coefficient seems consistent with the hypothesis that the central banks do not target the fluctuations in the exchange rate but consider them only to the extent they impact on the expected inflation and output path. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
Open Access
The sign switch effect of macroeconomic news in foreign exchange markets
(Elsevier Ltd, 2016) Ben Omrane, Walid; Savaşer, Tanseli
We examine an unusual episode in the behavior of the euro, pound and yen exchange rate markets when the dollar appreciated (depreciated) against the three major currencies, in response to unfavorable (favorable) US growth news during the global financial crisis. Contrary to the previous findings, we show that, for each currency pair, only a small subset (about a third) of the most significant macro news effects reversed sign, primarily announcements regarding consumption, credit, labor and housing markets. Our results reveal that announcement chronology within a month matters, in that specifically the earliest releases within an indicator category exhibit sign asymmetry.