Browsing by Subject "Economic analysis"
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Item Open Access An alternative method to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market(Elsevier BV, 2007) Özlale, Ü.; Özcan, K. M.This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood. Since the issue is analyzed in a non-linear state space framework, the extended Kalman filter emerges as the optimal estimation algorithm. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, the results indicate that both the derived likelihood measure and the estimated time-varying parameters are meaningful and can successfully explain the path that the Turkish economy had followed between 2000 and 2006. The estimated parameters also suggest that overvalued domestic currency, current account deficit and the increase in the default risk increase the likelihood of having an economic crisis in the economy. Overall, the findings in this paper suggest that the estimation methodology introduced in this paper can also be applied to other emerging market economies as well. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Item Open Access Asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on economic performance: empirical evidence from Turkey(Routledge, 2016) Ülke, V.; Berument, HakanThis study investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate, output and inflation for an emerging economy ‒ Turkey ‒ by using monthly data between 1990 and 2014. We employ the innovative nonlinear vector autoregressive model of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011), which allows us to observe the effect of different stances (tight or loose) and different sizes (small or large) of monetary policy actions. Our empirical evidence reveals that tight monetary policy, which, in this case, is captured with a positive shock to interest rate, decreases exchange rate, output and prices, as economic theory suggests. Loose monetary policy, which is captured with a negative shock to interest rate, has the opposite effect on these variables. However, the effects of loose monetary policy are weaker than the effects of tight monetary policy because loose monetary policy shocks are less effective than tight monetary policy shocks. Moreover, as the magnitude of a shock increases, the difference between the effects of tight and loose monetary policy policies also increases. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.Item Open Access Carbon supported nano-sized Pt-Pd and Pt-Co electrocatalysts for proton exchange membrane fuel cells(2009) Kadirgan, F.; Kannan, A. M.; Atilan, T.; Beyhan, S.; Ozenler, S. S.; Süzer, Şefik; Yörür, A.Nano-sized Pt-Pd/C and Pt-Co/C electrocatalysts have been synthesized and characterized by an alcohol-reduction process using ethylene glycol as the solvent and Vulcan XC-72R as the supporting material. While the Pt-Pd/C electrodes were compared with Pt/C (20 wt.% E-TEK) in terms of electrocatalytic activity towards oxidation of H2, CO and H2-CO mixtures, the Pt-Co/C electrodes were evaluated towards oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) and compared with Pt/C (20 wt.% E-TEK) and Pt-Co/C (20 wt.% E-TEK) and Pt/C (46 wt.% TKK) in a single cell. In addition, the Pt-Pd/C and Pt-Co/C electrocatalyst samples were characterized by XRD, XPS, TEM and electroanalytical methods. The TEM images of the carbon supported platinum alloy electrocatalysts show homogenous catalyst distribution with a particle size of about 3-4 nm. It was found that while the Pt-Pd/C electrocatalyst has superior CO tolerance compared to commercial catalyst, Pt-Co/C synthesized by polyol method has shown better activity and stability up to 60 °C compared to commercial catalysts. Single cell tests using the alloy catalysts coated on Nafion-212 membranes with H2 and O2 gases showed that the fuel cell performance in the activation and the ohmic regions are almost similar comparing conventional electrodes to Pt-Pd anode electrodes. However, conventional electrodes give a better performance in the ohmic region comparing to Pt-Co cathode. It is worth mentioning that these catalysts are less expensive compared to the commercial catalysts if only the platinum contents were considered.Item Open Access Dedollarization in Turkey after decades of dollarization: a myth or reality?(Elsevier BV, 2007) Özcan, K. M.; Us, V.The paper analyzes dollarization in the Turkish economy given the evidence on dedollarization signals. On conducting a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the empirical evidence suggests that dollarization has mostly been shaped by macroeconomic imbalances as measured by exchange rate depreciation volatility, inflation volatility and expectations. Furthermore, the generalized impulse response function (IRF) analysis, in addition to the analysis of variance decomposition (VDC) gives support to the notion that dollarization seems to sustain its persistent nature, thus hysteresis still prevails. Hence, unfavorable macroeconomic conditions apparently contribute to dollarization while dollarization itself contains inertia. Furthermore, dedollarization that presumably started after 2001 has lost headway after May 2006. Thus, it seems too early to conclude that dollarization changed its route to dedollarization. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Item Open Access Design and analysis of mechanisms for decentralized joint replenishment(Elsevier B.V., 2017) Güler, K.; Körpeoğlu, E.; Şen, A.We consider jointly replenishing multiple firms that operate under an EOQ like environment in a decentralized, non-cooperative setting. Each firm's demand rate and inventory holding cost rate are private information. We are interested in finding a mechanism that would determine the joint replenishment frequency and allocate the joint ordering costs to these firms based on their reported stand-alone replenishment frequencies (if they were to order independently). We first provide an impossibility result showing that there is no direct mechanism that simultaneously achieves efficiency, incentive compatibility, individual rationality and budget-balance. We then propose a general, two-parameter mechanism in which one parameter is used to determine the joint replenishment frequency, another is used to allocate the order costs based on firms’ reports. We show that efficiency cannot be achieved in this two-parameter mechanism unless the parameter governing the cost allocation is zero. When the two parameters are same (a single parameter mechanism), we find the equilibrium share levels and corresponding total cost. We finally investigate the effect of this parameter on equilibrium behavior. We show that properly adjusting this parameter leads to mechanisms that are better than other mechanisms suggested earlier in the literature in terms of fairness and efficiency. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.Item Open Access Inflation and inflation uncertainty: a dynamic framework(Elsevier BV, 2012) Berument, Hakan; Yalcin, Y.; Yildirim J.This paper aims to investigate the direct relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty by employing a dynamic method for the monthly country-region-place United States data for the time period 1976-2007. While the bulk of previous studies has employed GARCH models in investigating the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty, in this study Stochastic Volatility in Mean models are used to capture the shocks to inflation uncertainty within a dynamic framework. These models allow researchers to assess the dynamic effects of innovations in inflation as well as inflation volatility on inflation and inflation volatility over time, by incorporating the unobserved volatility as an explanatory variable in the mean (inflation) equation. Empirical findings suggest that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Item Open Access Is environmental efficiency trade inducing or trade hindering?(Elsevier, 2014) Doganay, S. M.; Sayek, S.; Taskin, F.Global efforts to identify strategies for sustainable economic growth and development underline the need for understanding important links between environmental policies and international trade. In this paper, by constructing an environmental efficiency index for 111 countries from 1980 to 2009, we are able to empirically test for one such link. An improvement in the environmental efficiency index in terms of carbon dioxide emissions reflects a decrease in the cost of efforts to mitigate the environmental costs associated with growth. Countries that improve their environmental efficiency are found to experience strong international trade effects, both through increased exports and increased imports. While the positive link between efficiency improvements and exports is supportive of the Porter hypothesis, the positive link between efficiency improvements and imports is supportive of strong positive income effects on account of environmental efforts. These results, which are robust to alternative estimation strategies, lend strong support to global efforts to improve countries' environmental efficiencies. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.Item Open Access Market regeneration in line with sustainable urban development(MDPI, 2022-09-17) Borucka, Justyna; Czyż, Piotr; Gasco, Giorgio; Mazurkiewicz, Weronika; Nałęcz, Dorota; Szczepański, MarcinThis article presents the study of the optimal design solutions for regeneration of marketplaces. It examines the design variants for the revitalisation of the marketplace, in particular, investment in their modernisation in order to find the most optimal model for transforming these public spaces to have a significant impact on the city’s development. The research is a comparative analysis of the implementation of regeneration design models on the marketplace within the Oliwa district of Gdansk (Poland).The data for the case study design models includes analysis based on various optimisation criteria, taking into account the urban and economic aspects of the city landscape when selecting a specific space revitalisation design model. The implementation of regeneration investment includes a number of complex processes that must be sustainable and so require rational social and spatial planning, as well as proper organisation in terms of cost and time.Item Open Access Non-cooperative joint replenishment under asymmetric information(Elsevier, 2013) Körpeoğlu, E.; Şen, A.; Güler, K.We consider jointly replenishing n ex-ante identical firms that operate under an EOQ like setting using a non-cooperative game under asymmetric information. In this game, each firm, upon being privately informed about its demand rate (or inventory cost rate), submits a private contribution to an intermediary that specifies how much it is willing to pay for its replenishment per unit of time and the intermediary determines the maximum feasible frequency for the joint orders that would finance the fixed replenishment cost. We show that a Bayesian Nash equilibrium exists and characterize the equilibrium in this game. We also show that the contributions are monotone increasing in each firm's type. We finally conduct a numerical study to compare the equilibrium to solutions obtained under independent and cooperative ordering, and under full information. The results show that while information asymmetry eliminates free-riding in the contributions game, the resulting aggregate contributions are not as high as under full information, leading to higher aggregate costs.Item Open Access Persistency of Turkish export shocks: a quantile autoregression (QAR) approach(Springer, 2016) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N. N.; Yasar, P.This study analyzes the persistency of total and disaggregated Turkish exports for different shock magnitudes using the quantile autoregression (QAR) method in line with Koenker and Xiao (J Am Stat Assoc 99:775–787, 2004). The results suggest that the persistence of shocks are not similar across different quantiles of Total Exports and disaggregated export sectors, indicating an asymmetry in the case of negative and positive shocks across different export sectors. The persistency behavior of Total Exports as well as Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Basic Metals, Raw Materials, Motor Vehicles and Radio & TV exports are asymmetric to negative versus positive shocks, which cannot be captured by traditional unit root tests. Thus, sound interpretation of QAR results is necessary for policy makers to identify shock characteristics and thereby pursue appropriate policies for overcoming adverse impacts on the economy. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York.Item Restricted Saving Capitalism(1973) Lomas, HerbertItem Open Access Trading off health and financial protection benefits with multiobjective optimization(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2020-10-18) Karsu, Özlem; Morton, AlecCountries which are introducing a system of Universal health coverage have to make a number of key tradeoffs, of which one is the tradeoff between the level of coverage and the degree to which patients are exposed to potentially catastrophic financial risk. In this study, we first present a way in which decision makers might be supported to focus on in a particular part of the tradeoff curve and ultimately choose an efficient solution. We then introduce some multiobjective optimization models for generating the tradeoff curves given data about potential treatment numbers, costs, and benefits. Using a dataset from Malawi, we demonstrate the approach and suggest a core index metric to make specific observations on the individual treatments. Moreover, as there has been some debate about the best way to measure financial exposure, we also investigate the extent to sensitivity of our results to the precise technical choice of financial exposure metric. Specifically, we consider two metrics, which are the total number of cases protected from catastrophic expenditure and a convex penalty function that penalizes out-of-pocket expenditures in an increasingly growing way, respectively.Item Open Access Turkey: dynamic efficiency considerations in merger control analyses(Institute of Competition Law, 2018) Gürkaynak, G.; Koz, Ç.; Topaloğlu, S. N.The final destination and the ultimate goal that we put forth in our article is that the Turkish Competition Board should include innovation considerations in its merger control analyses by employing dynamic tools. Accordingly, we contend that the Turkish Competition Board should “set its course to Ithaka” and aim to reach its “ideal state” in its enforcement of competition rules. The Turkish Competition Board should bear in mind that, regardless of how long, arduous and full of hardship the journey may be, each step taken on this path brings it closer to Ithaka and helps it to achieve the fundamental goals of competition enforcement. Without undertaking this adventurous, challenging and lengthy voyage,it is not possible to reach the final destination.Item Open Access Ultrahazardous activity liability in PPP models: efficient allocation of risk(Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi, 2017) Bayazıt, Bahar; Alper, GizemThe development of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models -which is an arrangement/set of contract that is concluded between the private sector company and the administrative authority in order to provide public servicesshift the risks to private sector, which is much more capable of bearing the risk of such activity, changes and blurs the types of responsibility of the public authorities. Which type of PPP models should be used in ultrahazardous activities is a problematic issue, since the acceptance of the new Turkish Code of Obligations a new rule have been established for ultrahazardous activity liability. The new rule has many gap holes, such as who should be responsible and which type of liability is it actually regulating, causing big financial institutes like PPP models to take under undetermined risks. Whether the private sector company or the administrative authority should undertake these risks is an issue that has yet to be determined. The question addressed in this paper is the following: how to allocate the risk of ultrahazardous activity liability between transaction parties (namely the administrative authority and the private sector company) in PPP models/contracts to favor efficiency?