Browsing by Subject "Eastern Hemisphere"

Now showing 1 - 11 of 11

Open Access
Clash of interest over northern Iraq drives Turkish-Israeli alliance to a crossroads
(Middle East Institute, 2005) Kibaroglu, M.
Turkey and Israel enjoyed an almost perfect relationship throughout the 1990s that amazed their friends, yet bothered their rivals. The US war in Iraq revealed, however, that the two longstanding allies did indeed have contradictory objectives and concerns with respect to the future restructuring of Iraq. While Turkey fears the emergence of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, the same possibility seems favorable for Israel from its security standpoint, vis-à-vis threats posed by countries like Iran, Pakistan, and beyond. It appears that the "amazing alliance" is heading toward a crossroads. Such an eventuality may change the nature of the relationship from a "win-win" to a "lose-lose" situation unless proper steps are rapidly taken with a view toward rebuilding confidence on both sides.
Open Access
Denomination composition of trade and trade balance: evidence from Turkey
(Routledge, 2005) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N.
The currency denominations of a country's exports and imports are not necessarily the same. If this is the case, then a change in the exchange rate parity among major currencies will affect the trade balance. The empirical evidence provided from Turkey - where exports are mostly denominated in Euros and imports are mostly denominated in USD - suggests that an appreciation of the Euro against the USD would increase the output in the long-run, appreciate the local currency and improve the trade balance for the 1985:01 2003:07 period. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.
Open Access
The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience
(Routledge, 2004) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N. N.
This study examines the effects of real exchange rate risk on the economic performance for an emerging, small open economy: Turkey. When the ratios of the total foreign exchange liabilities of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to: (1) total reserves; (2) the CBRT's reserves; and (3) the CBRT's total Turkish lira liabilities are taken proxy of exchange rate risk, the empirical evidence suggests that the increase in exchange rate risk causes a depreciation in the real exchange rate, an increase in prices and a decrease in output. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.
Open Access
The European Union, the Turkish military and democracy
(Routledge, 2005) Heper, M.
The military in Turkey has been both the subject and the object of modernization as Westernization. In the process it came to occupy a prominent place in the Turkish polity, acting as the guardian of the premises upon which the Turkish Republic was based. In the post-1960 period it took power into own hands several times. Yet, the military interventions in question were made to 'save the democracy from itself' and not for the purpose of setting up a long-term military rule. Over the years, the military became less enthusiastic about intervening in politics. In recent years, the military's extrication from politics altogether gained a new momentum as a consequence of Turkey's bid to become a full member of the EU. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.
Open Access
Future of Turkey-EU relations: a civilisational discourse
(Pergamon Press, 2005) Tekin, A.
Should or can Turkey join the European Union (EU)? This paper argues that there are three alternative scenarios of the EU decision to grant membership to Turkey: 'privileged relationship offer,' 'wait and see attitude,' and 'start of full membership negotiations.' It then gauges each alternative path, and argues that the most likely scenario is a decision to start the negotiations, followed by the scenario of 'wait and see.' The EU decision will be conditioned by its future vision of global governance and the role foreseen for Turkey inside, outside or at the margin of it. The paper concludes that the EU decision will have significant implications for the future of relations between Europe and Turkey on the one hand, and Europe and the Islamic world on the other.
Open Access
The missing link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2005) Berument, Hakan; Kilinc, Z.; Ozlale, U.
In the literature, there is no consensus about the direction of the effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates. This paper states that such a result may stem from differentiation in the sources of the uncertainties and analyzes the effects of different types of inflation uncertainties on a set of interest rates for the UK within an interest rate rule framework. Three types of inflation uncertainties - impulse uncertainty, structural uncertainty and steady-state uncertainty - are derived by using a time-varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification. It is shown that the impulse uncertainty is positively and the structural uncertainty is negatively correlated with the interest rates. Moreover, these two uncertainties are important to explain short-term interest rates for the period of inflation targeting era. However, this time, the impulse uncertainty is negatively and the structural uncertainty is positively correlated with the overnight interbank interest rates, which is consistent with the general characteristic of the inflation targeting regimes. Lastly, the evidence concerning the effect of the steady-state inflation uncertainty on interest rates is not conclusive. © Scottish Economic Society 2005.
Open Access
The policy challenge with floating exchange rates: Turkey's recent experience
(Springer New York LLC, 2005) Selçuk, F.
This paper evaluates the developments in the Turkish economy in light of the Central Bank of Turkey's (CBT) policies during a recent period of floating exchange rate system (March 2001-July 2003). It is found that the CBT was effective in containing volatility and reducing the average inflation rate while there was a strong recovery of output. However, there are accumulated risks in the economy. Particularly, the extreme appreciation of the Turkish lira during this period and the record level of real interest rates give the impression that the current state of the economy is fragile. Unless the government accelerates the structural reform process and pursues sound fiscal policies to reduce the public sector borrowing requirement and the debt ratio, an adverse shock to the system may trigger a reversal of fortune. © 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.
Open Access
Real wages, profit margins and inflation in Turkish manufacturing under post-liberalization
(Routledge, 2005) Gunay, A.; Ozcan, K. M.; Yeldan, E.
This article reports investigations into the behaviour of gross profit margins (mark-ups) in Turkish manufacturing industries for the post-1980 liberalization period in relation to price inflation, trade liberalization (openness) and real wage costs. Panel data econometrics over 29 subsectors of Turkish manufacturing are used over the period 1980-1996. Results suggest that profit margins are positively and significantly related both to price inflation and real wage costs. However, openness is found to have very little impact on profit margins. © 2005 Taylor & Francis.
Open Access
The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963-1999
(Routledge, 2005) Ismihan, M.; Ozcan, K. M.; Tansel, A.
This study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between macroeconomic instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. Time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic macroeconomic instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses, the complementarity between public and private investment in the long run. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.
Open Access
The technical inefficiency effects of Turkish banks after financial liberalization
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2005) Demir, N.; Mahmud, S. F.; Babuscu, S.
The banking sector in Turkey has grown significantly over the last two decades of financial liberalization. One of the aims of the financial liberalization was to improve efficiency through restructuring programs including the privatization of state banks and the encouragement of mergers. In this paper we identify key factors determining the technical efficiency differentials among Turkish commercial banks in the pre-and post-liberalization periods, using the technical inefficiency effects model. We found that loan quality, size, ownership of the banks, and profitability have a positive and significant impact on the technical efficiencies of banks. The results warrant implementation of effective regulatory measures to improve the quality of the earning assets of commercial banks. Furthermore, steps by the government to encourage acquisitions or mergers for private banks and the privatization of state-owned banks seem to be consistent in improving the overall efficiency of commercial banking in Turkey.
Open Access
US mediation in Greek-Turkish disputes since 1954
(Duke University Press, 2005) Kalaitzaki, T.
In this essay I summarize the historical background of Greek-Turkish relations during the interwar years, the political and security challenges the two states faced at the end of the Second World War, and the beginning of the alliance ties among the United States, Greece, and Turkey. I also examine the most serious Cyprus and Aegean crises along with American mediation and solution efforts. The last part is devoted to US involvement in the post-Cold War era.