Browsing by Subject "Decision-making"

Now showing 1 - 9 of 9

Open Access
Autonomous air combat with reinforcement learning under different noise conditions
(IEEE - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2023-08-28) Taşbaş, A. S.; Serbest, S.; Şahin, Safa Onur; Üre, N. K.
The autonomous realization of air combat with reinforcement learning-based methods has recently become a prominent field of study. In this paper, we present a classifier architecture to solve the air combat problem in noisy environments, which is a sub-branch of this field. We collect data from environments with different noise levels using air combat simulation. Using these data, we train three different data sets with the number of state stacks 2, 4, and 8. We train neural network-based classifiers using these datasets. These classifiers adaptively estimate the noise level in the environment at each time step and activate the appropriate pre-trained reinforcement learning policy based on this estimate. In addition, we share the performance comparison of these classifiers in different state stacks.
Open Access
Comments on effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
(Elsevier, 2009) Önkal, D.
Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerized forecasting system to produce initial forecasts and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of these forecasts by the company's demand planners, ostensibly to take into account exceptional circumstances expected over the planning horizon. Making these adjustments can involve considerable management effort and time, but do they improve accuracy, and are some types of adjustment more effective than others? To investigate this, we collected data on more than 60,000 forecasts and outcomes from four supply-chain companies. In three of the companies, on average, judgmental adjustments increased accuracy. However, a detailed analysis revealed that, while the relatively larger adjustments tended to lead to greater average improvements in accuracy, the smaller adjustments often damaged accuracy. In addition, positive adjustments, which involved adjusting the forecast upwards, were much less likely to improve accuracy than negative adjustments. They were also made in the wrong direction more frequently, suggesting a general bias towards optimism. Models were then developed to eradicate such biases. Based on both this statistical analysis and organisational observation, the paper goes on to analyse strategies designed to enhance the effectiveness of judgmental adjustments directly.
Open Access
Conditional deliberation: the case of joint parliamentary committees in the EU
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2014) Ozcurumez, S.; Hoxha, J.
Deliberation, as a mode of interaction based on the logic of reason-giving argumentation, is a core feature of the European Union institutions. Yet only few studies have explored the conditions that make deliberation possible in practice. This study examines the institutional determinants of deliberation within joint parliamentary committees (JPCs) – longstanding instruments of EU enlargement policy. The empirical analysis reveals a dynamic relationship between ‘deliberation’ and ‘debate’ as extreme modes of interaction that co-exist within the same setting. It also suggests that deliberation is a product of participants’ constant efforts to maintain equal power relations and low issue-area sensitivity. This study provides new evidence on deliberative politics at the EU level. In addition, it highlights the role of inter-parliamentary deliberation as a catalyst for political co-operation and policy co-ordination, at a time of intensifying enlargement fatigue and growing Euroscepticism both at home and abroad.
Open Access
Cross-cultural regularities in the cognitive architecture of pride
(National Academy of Sciences, 2017) Sznycer, D.; Al-Shawaf, L.; Bereby-Meyer, Y.; Curry, O. S.; De Smet, D.; Ermer, E.; Kim, S.; Li, N. P.; Lopez Seal, M. F.; McClung, J.; O, Jiaqing; Ohtsubo, Y.; Quillien, T.; Schaub, M.; Sell, A.; Van Leeuwen, F.; Cosmides, L.; Tooby, J.
Pride occurs in every known culture, appears early in development, is reliably triggered by achievements and formidability, and causes a characteristic display that is recognized everywhere. Here, we evaluate the theory that pride evolved to guide decisions relevant to pursuing actions that enhance valuation and respect for a person in the minds of others. By hypothesis, pride is a neurocomputational program tailored by selection to orchestrate cognition and behavior in the service of: (i) motivating the costeffective pursuit of courses of action that would increase others' valuations and respect of the individual, (ii) motivating the advertisement of acts or characteristics whose recognition by others would lead them to enhance their evaluations of the individual, and (iii) mobilizing the individual to take advantage of the resulting enhanced social landscape. To modulate how much to invest in actions that might lead to enhanced evaluations by others, the pride system must forecast the magnitude of the evaluations the action would evoke in the audience and calibrate its activation proportionally. We tested this prediction in 16 countries across 4 continents (n = 2,085), for 25 acts and traits. As predicted, the pride intensity for a given act or trait closely tracks the valuations of audiences, local (mean r = +0.82) and foreign (mean r = +0.75). This relationship is specific to pride and does not generalize to other positive emotions that coactivate with pride but lack its audience-recalibrating function.
Open Access
Decision-making in complex environments: a study of women entrepreneurs in Pakistan
(2023-12) Younus, Iqra
This thesis examines Pakistani women's entrepreneurial experiences, emphasizing on their unique challenges and decision-making processes. It explores the context of Pakistan's complex sociocultural, political, and economic environment and how these factors interact closely to shape their entrepreneurial journeys. The main focus of this research is to study and analyze how these women navigate uncertainty and challenges while making business decisions. A purposive sampling technique and a qualitative methodology is employed in this study - basing the research on the actual experiences of 36 Pakistani women entrepreneurs. It demonstrates how they deal with and adjust to difficulties brought on by the economic challenges of the country, such as market volatility and currency instability. The study also emphasizes the significance of socio-cultural norms, particularly those pertaining to gender roles, which both impede and motivate them. The research reveals that despite these challenges, Pakistani women entrepreneurs display determination and adaptability. They balance external guidance and their own judgment strategically, making decisions using a combination of intuition, heuristics, and rational analysis. It also highlights the importance of elements like personal and family values, emotional intelligence, and faith in business decisions. These women frequently establish firms from home, reflecting cultural constraints and their strategic response to obstacles.
Open Access
Globalization and the inward flow of immigrants: Issues associated with the inpatriation of global managers
(Wiley, 2011) Harvey, M.; Kiessling, T.; Moeller, M.
Assembling a diverse global workforce is becoming a critical dimension in gaining successful global performance. In the past, staffing has focused on control of the multinational organization as the primary goal when staffing overseas positions. As organizations globalize their operations, the goal of staffing is shifting from control to diversity, which in turn will provide the global organization with a means to gain/maintain competitive advantage. This diversity will be accomplished by integrating foreigners into the home country organization (i.e., inpatriation) through a permanent assignment. This article examines the inward flow of inpatriate managers by using social learning theory as a lens to better understand the means to integrate foreign managers into the domestic organization culture. The stages that inpatriate managers will go through (i.e., survival, integration, acculturation, and pluralistic integration) are explored to ascertain how to effectively utilize these global managers.
Open Access
How to understand mental actions
(2023-06) Oral, Kemal Tarık
There are lots of goings-on in our mental lives: thinking of something, calculating the sum of two numbers, daydreaming, deciding what to do, or trying to remember a particular moment. Some of these are actions we do intentionally while others are things that just happen to us. Thus, philosophers of action take different stands about the scope of mental agency. In this thesis, I argue that there is an implicit metaphysical assumption in discussions about the scope of mental agency, which is somewhat due to Strawson’s (2003) influential account. Roughly put, the assumption is that for a mental act A, A-ing occurs only after certain processes, which might (not) be agential, that lead up to an event of A-ing. I argue that this conceptualization leads many philosophers to argue that most mental activities cannot be agential. However, I think that this is metaphysically inaccurate. The objective of this thesis is to show how and why this is the case by focusing on a particular mental action: deciding. Inspired by the Vendler-Kenny typology of verbs, I argue that deciding can be considered as an accomplishment and that the occurrence of the decision is not a distinct effect, but a result of deliberative processes: deciding is nothing over and above deliberative processes, but just these processes’ coming to an end. I believe that this approach will be effective in solving problems an account of mental agency can face.
Open Access
The role of indicator-based sustainability assessment in policy and the decision-making process : a review and outlook
(MDPI AG, 2017) Dizdaroğlu, Didem
In order to regulate natural processes and control the scale of human activities, sustainability assessment needs to be integrated into urban planning. In this context, indicator-based sustainability assessment tools are fundamental instruments that provide information to support policy and decision-making. Indicators are necessary to monitor the implementation of the policies and provide feedback needed to accomplish the desirable state of sustainable urban development. This paper aims to explore the role of indicator-based sustainability assessment in policy and the decision-making process. Therefore, it reviews the identified sustainable development indicator initiatives and addresses the research gaps in the literature for future improvement of sustainability assessment frameworks. It concludes with a discussion that the major problem in sustainability assessment lies in the gathering of reliable and accessible data.
Open Access
Unveiling the process behind counterinsurgency: three essays on the impact of leadership, group and societal dynamics on policymaking
(2024-05) Düveroğlu, Buse
This dissertation endeavors to unravel the intricate dynamics influencing incumbent leaders’ counterinsurgency strategies, particularly the determinants behind their choices between violent and non-violent approaches in combating insurgencies. By adopting a comprehensive approach, this research delves into domestic political processes, group-constituency dynamics, and governmentsociety relations to elucidate the underlying patterns in counterinsurgency policymaking. Empirical investigation reveals that inexperienced leaders are prone to resorting to violence as a counterinsurgency tactic, whereas their experienced counterparts exhibit a propensity to eschew violent measures, opting instead for a blend of non-violent strategies. Furthermore, the influence of leader experience is contingent upon regime type, with short tenure leaders displaying nuanced responses depending on whether they govern within democratic or anocratic frameworks. Moreover, the study uncovers a trend wherein governments tend to maintain non-responsiveness when confronted with terrorist groups possessing a positive reputation yet become more aggressive when facing those with a negative reputation. Notably, in societies characterized by heightened affective polarization, governments exhibit a heightened inclination toward resorting exclusively to violent means in addressing rebel threats. By shedding light on these intricate dynamics, this research makes a significant contribution to conflict studies, paving the way for a more nuanced understanding of the interplay between conflict dynamics at different levels and counterinsurgency efforts.