Browsing by Subject "Currency market"
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Item Open Access Denomination composition of trade and trade balance: evidence from Turkey(Routledge, 2005) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N.The currency denominations of a country's exports and imports are not necessarily the same. If this is the case, then a change in the exchange rate parity among major currencies will affect the trade balance. The empirical evidence provided from Turkey - where exports are mostly denominated in Euros and imports are mostly denominated in USD - suggests that an appreciation of the Euro against the USD would increase the output in the long-run, appreciate the local currency and improve the trade balance for the 1985:01 2003:07 period. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.Item Open Access The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case(Routledge, 2006) Ardıç, O. P.; Selçuk, F.In recent years, many emerging market economies have switched or are in the process of switching to a floating exchange rate regime. Most of these economies have a history of high inflation and a high level of foreign currency denominated debt. Therefore, the stability of the exchange rate and the dynamics of its volatility are more crucial than before. This paper analyses the dynamics of exchange rate in Turkey in the aftermath of recent float in February 2001. The Turkish experience is a particularly important one, and provides valuable lessons for other countries as the Central Bank is trying to simultaneously contain the volatility of exchange rate and pursue an implicit inflation targeting policy. The reported findings indicate that the Central Bank policies, accompanied with favourable external factors, were effective in taming the volatility of the exchange rate in a relatively short period of time. However, there is a significant real appreciation of the currency during the same period. Given the high level of public debt and real interest rates, the current state of the economy is very susceptible to any adverse shocks. © 2006 Taylor & Francis.Item Open Access The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience(Routledge, 2004) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N. N.This study examines the effects of real exchange rate risk on the economic performance for an emerging, small open economy: Turkey. When the ratios of the total foreign exchange liabilities of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to: (1) total reserves; (2) the CBRT's reserves; and (3) the CBRT's total Turkish lira liabilities are taken proxy of exchange rate risk, the empirical evidence suggests that the increase in exchange rate risk causes a depreciation in the real exchange rate, an increase in prices and a decrease in output. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.Item Open Access Effects of the real exchange rate on output and inflation: evidence from Turkey(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2003) Berument, Hakan; Pasaogullari, M.This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary.Item Open Access Effects of USD-Euro parity on a small open economy: evidence from Turkey(Routledge, 2008) Berument, Hakan; Yucel, E. M.This study assesses the effect of USD-Euro parity on a small open economy where exports are predominantly denominated in Euros and imports are denominated in USD. Empirical evidence from Turkey suggests that a positive change in the USD value of the Euro appreciates the local currency, decreases inflation and increases output.Item Open Access Exchange rate risk and interest rate: a case study for Turkey(Springer New York LLC, 2003) Berument, Hakan; Günay, A.This paper examines the effect of exchange rate risk on interest rates within the uncovered interest rate parity condition for Turkey. When the interest rate is measured with the Treasury auction interest rate and the exchange rate risk is measured with the conditional variance of the exchange rate, then we found that there is a positive relation between the exchange rate risk and interest rate with the data from December 1986 to January 2001.Item Open Access Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey(Routledge, 2004) Özlale, Ü.; Yeldan, E.Turkey has embarked an extensive dis-inflation and stabilization program in December 1999. The programme exclusively relied on a nominally pegged (anchored) exchange rate system for dis-inflation and on fiscal austerity. In February 2001, however, Turkey experienced a severe financial crisis which necessiated the dismantling of the exchange rate anchor and a switch to a regime of free float. This article proposes a new methodology to measure exchange rate misalignment for Turkey over the period January 1992 to December 2001. In a single equation framework, the model estimates the real exchange rate within a time varying parameter model, where a return-to-normality assumption about the parameters is assumed. Contrary to common belief, it is found that, except the initial four months of the stabilization programme, the Turkish lira remained undervalued for most of 2000. Also, one observes a pattern where the lira has been overvalued after the financial crisis of 1994 until 1998, and has displayed a tendency of undervaluation after then. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.Item Open Access Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2004) Berument, Hakan; Taşçı, H.This paper estimates a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey by considering the period from 1990:01 to 2000:10. When the spread between the interbank rate and depreciation rate of the local currency is taken as a policy tool, the empirical evidence suggests that the Turkish Central Bank responds to its foreign exchange reserves, output and M2 growth not the forward, current or lagged inflation. © 2003 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.