Browsing by Subject "Currency crises--Mathematical models."
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Open Access Currency crises theory : third generation models(Bilkent University, 2009) Koç, EmreThis thesis investigates third generation currency crisis literature and concludes that the 2001 Turkish currency crisis can be labeled as a third generation type crisis, despite having unique characteristics. According to the model of Eijffinger and Goderis (2007) which derives risk premium of the economy from the balance sheet structure of the corporate sector, higher domestic debt increases the probability of currency crisis, whereas higher foreign debt can either increase or decrease the probability of a currency crisis depending on the parameter values. This model has little explanatory power for the 2001 crisis, since the crisis predominantly arise from the maturity mismatch problem in the balance sheet of the financial sector, coupled with moral hazard problem driven by implicit government guarantees. In addition to these two issues which are examined by different strands of third generation currency crisis literature, Turkish crisis display distinctive characteristics such as the role of fragile fiscal deficit financing mechanism.Item Open Access Soft peg regimes : sensitivity to crises and performance(Bilkent University, 2011) Gedik, Nilgün ŞayesteIn this thesis, soft peg regimes’ sensitivity to crises and performance are investigated after a brief review of exchange rate regimes and their historical evolutions. The currency crisis faced by emerging countries under adaptation of soft peg regimes in the 1990s and in the beginning of 2000s revealed the suspicions on soft peg regimes’ vulnerability to crisis. With the increased tendency of countries adaptation of floating regimes after abandonment of soft pegs, some arguments emerged inquiring the appearance of soft peg regimes in the literature. The Corner Hypothesis, which defends the disappearance of soft peg regimes and its counter argument The Fear Of Floating, which does not accept the disappearance and another argument The Basket, Band and Crawl Arrangements, which provides alternative soft peg regimes are analyzed in this thesis. However, soft peg regimes’ vulnerability to currency crisis should not be investigated without the emerging countries’ common characteristics, which can be counted as lack of sound financial and fiscal structure and strong institutional framework. At the end of this study, importance of strong financial and fiscal structure of countries to provide macroeconomic balances including exchange rate regime is mentioned.Item Open Access A theoretical overview of the first and second generation models of currency crises(Bilkent University, 2009) Özbuğday, Fatih CemilThis study reckons a comprehensive and holistic overview of first and second generation models of currency crises. The main characteristics and assumptions of these models are portrayed and the motives behind these models are illustrated. By and large, the seminal papers which have been sources of inspiration for the evolution of the currency crisis theory are demonstrated in detail. Moreover, incorporations of various elements from economic theory into these models and extensions are discussed briefly. Finally, a very basic intuition about how successful these models are in giving explanations of currency crises that countries have experienced is given.