Browsing by Subject "Confidence intervals"

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Open Access
The effects of feedback on judgmental interval predictions
(Elsevier, 2004) Bolger, F.; Önkal-Atay, D.
The majority of studies of probability judgment have found that judgments tend to be overconfident and that the degree of overconfidence is greater the more difficult the task. Further, these effects have been resistant to attempts to ‘debias’ via feedback. We propose that under favourable conditions, provision of appropriate feedback should lead to significant improvements in calibration, and the current study aims to demonstrate this effect. To this end, participants first specified ranges within which the true values of time series would fall with a given probability. After receiving feedback, forecasters constructed intervals for new series, changing their probability values if desired. The series varied systematically in terms of their characteristics including amount of noise, presentation scale, and existence of trend. Results show that forecasts were initially overconfident but improved significantly after feedback. Further, this improvement was not simply due to ‘hedging’, i.e. shifting to very high probability estimates and extremely wide intervals; rather, it seems that calibration improvement was chiefly obtained by forecasters learning to evaluate the extent of the noise in the series. D 2003 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Functional mobility, depressive symptoms, level of independence, and quality of life of the elderly living at home and in the nursing home
(Elsevier Inc., 2009) Karakaya, M. G.; Bilgin, S. C.; Ekici, G.; Köse, N.; Otman, A. S.
Objectives: To compare functional mobility, depressive symptoms, level of independence, and quality of life of the elderly living at home and in the nursing home. Design: A prospectively designed, comparative study. Setting: A nursing home and a university hospital department. Participants: In this study, 33 elderly living in a nursing home and 25 elderly living at home, who fulfilled the inclusion criteria and volunteered to participate, were included. Measurements: Sociodemographic characteristics were recorded. Functional mobility (Timed Up & Go Test), depressive symptoms (Geriatric Depression Scale), level of independence (Kahoku Aging Longitudinal Study Scale), and quality of life (Visual Analogue Scale) scores were compared between the groups. Results: Functional mobility and independence level of the nursing home residents were higher than the home-dwelling elderly (95% CI: -4.88, -0.29 and 0.41, 6.30, respectively), but they had more depressive symptoms (95% CI: 0.30, 5.45), and their level of QoL was lower (95% CI: -15.55, -2.93). Conclusion: These findings are thought to be important and of benefit for health care professionals and caregivers as indicating the areas that need to be supported for the elderly living at home (functional mobility and independence) and in the nursing home (depressive symptoms and quality of life). © 2009 American Medical Directors Association.