Browsing by Subject "Capital flow"
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Item Open Access Capital maintenance as a key development tool(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2010) Boucekkine, R.; Martinez, B.; Saglam, C.We construct optimal growth models where labor resources can be allocated either to production, technology adoption or capital maintenance. We first characterize the balanced growth paths of a benchmark model without maintenance. Then we introduce maintenance activity via the depreciation rate of capital. We characterize the optimal allocation of labor across the three activities. Although maintenance deepens the technological gap by diverting labor resources from adoption, we show that it generally increases the long run output level. Moreover, we find that equilibrium maintenance and adoption efforts respond in opposite directions to policy or technology shocks. Finally, we find that the long-term output response to policy shocks is slightly higher in the presence of maintenance. © 2010 The Authors. Scottish Journal of Political Economy © 2010 Scottish Economic Society.Item Open Access Effectiveness of the reserve option mechanism as a macroeconomic prudential tool: evidence from Turkey(Routledge, 2015) Sahin, A.; Dogan, B.; Berument, HakanThis article assesses the effectiveness of a novel macroprudential tool – the reserve option mechanism (ROM) – which Turkey’s central bank developed during the post-2008 period and has employed to control the risk associated with excessive capital flows. We assess how capital flows have affected economic variable changes since the introduction and usage of the ROM. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey suggests that the tool decreases the effect of capital flow on capital flow (positive shock to capital flow dies out faster or becomes less persistent) and diminishes the effects of capital flow shocks on exchange and interest rates. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.Item Open Access The effects of capital inflows on Turkish macroeconomic performance(Springer/Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2015) Berument, Hakan; Denaux, Z. S.; Emirmahmutoglu, F.Capital inflows are important factor affecting macroeconomic performance, such as the real exchange rate, interest rates, output, and price level. However, the components of capital inflows are also important. Capital inflows in the forms of portfolio investment liabilities, foreign direct investment, and other investment liabilities may affect these macroeconomic variables differently. The main focus of this study is to analyze the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in response to the different components of capital inflow shocks for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:1 to 2012:12 by utilizing a vector autoregression model. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York.Item Open Access The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2006) Brada, J. C.; Kutan, A. M.; Yigit, T. M.This paper examines the effects of transition and of political instability on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the transition economies of Central Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. We find that FDI flows to transition economies unaffected by conflict and political instability exceed those that would be expected for comparable West European countries. Success with stabilization and reform increased the volume of FDI inflows. In the case of Balkan counties, conflict and instability reduced FDI inflows below what one would expect for comparable West European countries, and reform and stabilization failures further reduced FDI to the region. Thus, we find that the economic costs of instability in the Balkans in terms of foregone FDI have been quite high. © 2006 The Authors Journal compilation © 2006 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.Item Open Access FDI, productivity and financial development(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2009) Alfaro, L.; Ozcan, S. K.; Sayek, S.This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth by focusing on the complementarities between FDI inflows and financial markets. In our earlier work, we found that FDI is beneficial for growth only if the host country has well-developed financial institutions. In this paper, we investigate whether this effect operates through factor accumulation and/or improvements in total factor productivity (TFP). Factor accumulation - physical and human capital - does not seem to be the main channel through which countries benefit from FDI. Instead, we find that countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI via TFP improvements. These results are consistent with the recent findings in the growth literature that shows the important role of TFP over factors in explaining cross-country income differences. © 2009 The Authors Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.Item Open Access Foreign equity trading and average stock-return volatility(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, 2013) Umutlu, M.; Akdeniz, L.; Altay-Salih, A.We examine whether there is a relationship between foreign equity trading and average total volatility, measured as the value-weighted average of stock-return variance in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. We employ foreign equity purchase and sale data to track changes in foreign equity trading, which not only enable us to capture effective foreign investor participation but also to observe the potential asymmetric effects of incoming and outgoing funds on the average total volatility. Consistent with the implications of the asymmetric information hypothesis, we find that net equity flow is positively associated with average total volatility. Furthermore, we show that net equity flow affects the average total volatility through the local and idiosyncratic volatilities, suggesting that foreign investors engage in the production of firm specific and market wide information.Item Open Access Introduction(Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2015) Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Stiglitz, J. E.; Gürkaynak, Refet S.Currency flows have always been a leading policy concern, especially in emerging markets. The long Japanese slump, the ensuing very low interest rates in Japan that have lasted 20 years, and the carry trades this fostered made currency flows a hot topic again, even before the global financial crisis increased liquidity in all developed economies and led to a new wave of currency flows to emerging market economies.Item Open Access Macroeconomics of twin-targeting in Turkey: analytics of a financial computable general equilibrium model(Routledge, 2008) Telli, C.; Voyvoda, E.; Yeldan, E.The paper provides an overview of the post-1998 Turkish economy and constructs a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to illustrate the real and financial sectoral adjustments of the Turkish economy under the conditionalities of the 'twin targets': on primary surplus to gross national product (GNP) ratio and on the inflation rate. We further utilize the model to study three sets of issues: (i) the critical role of the expanded foreign capital inflows in resolving the macroeconomic impasse between the disinflation motives of the central bank and imperatives of debt sustainability and fiscal credibility of the ministry of finance; (ii) reduction of the central bank's interest rates, and (iii) a labor market reform of reducing payroll taxes. Our simulation results suggest that the current monetary strategy, which involves a heavy reliance on foreign capital inflows along with a relatively high real rate of interest, is effective in bringing inflation down; yet it suffers from increased cost of interest burden to the public sector, and strains fiscal credibility. In contrast, given the ex ante constraints of the domestic economy in the short run, an alternative heterodox policy of reduction of the central bank interest rate and lowering of the payroll tax burden in labor markets indicate strong employment and growth effects along with strengthened fiscal credibility.Item Open Access Patterns of financial capital flows and accumulation in the post-1990 Turkish economy(Routledge, 2003) Biçer, F. G.; Yeldan, E.The purpose of this paper is twofold: using time series econometrics, we first investigate the determinants of short-term foreign capital inflows for Turkey following its capital account liberalization in 1989. We next investigate the changing nature of the private investment function under post-capital account liberalization and deduce hypotheses on its correlation with capital inflows and the key macroeconomic prices, such as the exchange rate, the real rate of interest, and real wages. Our results suggest that financial capital inflows have a significant negative correlation with the industrial production index and trade openness, and are positively correlated with real currency appreciation. Fixed private investment was found to have an inconclusive relationship with financial capital inflows. Real wage costs were observed to carry a significant negative relationship with private investment, indicating that at a time of currency appreciation, investors had to rely on declining wage costs in order to keep their export competitiveness. Under the volatile and uncertain conditions of speculation-driven investment patterns, the downward flexibility of real wages has to be seen as a concomitant factor of the post-financial liberalization episodes.