Browsing by Subject "Business cycles"

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7

Open Access
Business cycles and workers' remittances; how do migrant workers respond to cyclical movements of GDP at home?
(International Monetary Fund, 2006) Sayan, S.
Workers' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and different variables driving remittance behavior are differently affected by the state of economic activity over the business cycle. This paper investigates the behavior of workers' remittances flows into 12 developing countries over their respective business cycles during 1976-2003 and finds that countercyclicality of receipts is not commonly observed across these countries.
Open Access
Guest workers' remittances and output fluctuations in host and home countries: the case of remittances from Turkish workers in Germany
(Routledge, 2004) Sayan, S.
Over the past decades, different Mediterranean countries have sent considerable numbers of workers to the EU area, generating sizable amounts of foreign exchange receipts through the remittances these guest workers have transferred hack home. In some instances, however, the share of remittances in foreign exchange receipts has risen so high as to cause concern for policymakers, as they imply potentially serious effects on macroeconomic balances following sudden drops or jumps in remittances. Despite the importance of implications of the volatility of remittance receipts, the current literature severely lacks thorough investigations into the sources of this volatility. This paper aims to help fill this gap in the literature by documenting some key business cycle properties of workers' remittances received by the Turkish economy. More specifically, the paper investigates whether there is a relationship between the amount of remittances sent to Turkey by the large number of Turkish workers living and working in Germany, and up- and downswings that Turkish and German economies experience. For this purpose, regularities between fluctuations in the national outputs of respective economies and remittance flows to Turkey are analyzed by using time series data, and implications of results for the Turkish economy are discussed.
Open Access
Institutions and business cycles
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2012) Altug, S.; Neyapti, B.; Emin, M.
This paper investigates the relationship between the main features of business cycles and the institutional and structural characteristics of 62 industrial, emerging and formerly centrally planned economies from all continents. We find that a variety of institutional indicators, including stronger governance, greater civil liberties, more developed labour and capital markets, and higher levels of central bank independence are significantly associated with business cycle characteristics - namely, volatility and persistence. Our study also demonstrates that similarity of the institutional environment in dimensions such as governance and the level of labour and capital market development strongly affects the co-movement of business cycles across countries. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Open Access
An interest-rate-spread-based measure of Turkish monetary policy
(Routledge, 2014) Berument, Hakan; Ceylan, N. B.; Dogan, B.
A coherent method to measure the effectiveness of a monetary policy improves the monetary authority's management capacity and renders the possibility of applying sound policies prior to and during a crisis. The trend in employing complicated and ambiguity-bearing unconventional monetary tools in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis has increased the value of such a method. The aim of this article is to introduce a coherent and consistent monetary policy evaluation method for Turkey. Accordingly, we suggest that innovations in the spread between overnight interest rates and Treasury auction interest rates are informative for exchange rate, output, and prices. Empirical evidence for this identification reveals that positive innovation in spread (implying a tight monetary policy measure) decreases output temporarily, permanently decreases prices, and appreciates local currency. This result is also robust to alternative specifications.
Restricted
The use of mathematics in social explanation
(1989) Dore, MHI
Open Access
Turkey's full membership to the European Union: an analysis in view of business cycles
(Taylor & Francis, Ltd, 2001) Berument, Hakan; Malatyali, N. K.; Neyapti, B.
Turkey's desire for membership, initially in the European Economic Cooperation (EEC), and later in the European Union (EU) started with the Ankara Agreement in 1963. As the movement continues today, the dates and financial terms for Turkey's full membership to the European Union have not yet been clearly determined. Although Turkey's globally competitive potential has flourished with the liberal ization policies since the 1980s, and its dynamism and competitive force have often been expressed since the enactment of the Customs Union Agreement in 1995, Turkey continues to face challenges as European unification progresses. Turkey's attitude toward full membership can generally be characterized as sine qua non. Although at times there have been signs of a change in this attitude, no major change has so far occurred. In spite of this, Turkey's sectoral adjustment efforts and performance do not conform to a full membership in the European Union.
Open Access
Use of time-frequency representations in the analysis of stock market data
(Springer, 2002) Sayan, G. T.; Sayan, Serdar; Kontoghiorghes, E. J.; Rustem, B.; Siokos, S.
The analysis of economic/financial time series in the frequency domain is a relatively underexplored area of the literature, particularly when the statistical properties of a time series are time-variant (evolutionary). In this case, the spectral content of the series varies as time progresses, rendering the conventional Fourier theory inadequate in describing the cyclical characteristics of the series fully. The joint Time-Frequency Representation (TFR) techniques overcome this problem, as they are capable of analyzing a given (continuous or discrete) function of time in time and frequency domains simultaneously. To illustrate the potential of some of the TFR techniques widely used in various fields of science and engineering for use in the analysis of stock market data, the behavior of ISE-100 index of the Istanbul Stock Exchange is analyzed first, using two linear (the Gabor Transformation and the Short Time Fourier Transform) and two quadratic (the Wigner Distribution and the Page Distribution) TFRs. The performance of each TFR in detecting and decoding cycles that may be present in the original ISE data is evaluated by utilizing a specially synthesized time series whose trend and/or cycle components can be analytically specified and computed. This series is constructed in such a way to roughly mimic the pattern of a stock index series such as the original ISE series and is used as a benchmark for comparative performance analysis. The results indicate that the performance of the Page distribution, used for the first time in economics/finance literature, is significantly superior to the other TFRs considered. The analysis is then repeated using NASDAQ-100 index data recorded over the last 15 years so as to see if the results are robust to a change in the source of stock data from an emerging to a well-established market. The results point to a superior performance by the Page distribution once again, demonstrating the robustness of our previous results.