Browsing by Subject "Asset pricing"

Now showing 1 - 10 of 10

Open Access
Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?
(Elsevier, 2007) Akdeniz, L.; Salih, A. A.; Ok, S. T.
This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.
Open Access
Buyer's quantile hedge portfolios in discrete-time trading
(2013) Pinar, M.Ç.
The problem of quantile hedging for American claims is studied from the perspective of the buyer of a contingent claim by minimizing the 'expected failure ratio'. After a general study of the problem in infinite-state spaces, we pass to finite dimensions and examine the properties of the resulting finite-dimensional optimization problems. In finite-state probability spaces we obtain a bilinear programming formulation that admits an exact linearization using binary exercise variables. Numerical results with S&P 500 index options demonstrate the computational viability of the formulations. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
Open Access
Common risk factors in the returns of stocks trading in the İstanbul Stock Exchange
(2011) Akdağ, Muhammed
This study investigates the stocks trading in the Istanbul Stock Exchange for the years between 1997 and 2010 in an attempt to determine the common risk factors that capture the variation in stock returns. Time-series regressions are conducted to test the performance of the Fama & French (1993) three-factor model on a sample of 201 non-financial firms. Furthermore, an additional factor (FIP) is introduced and used to measure the effect of foreign investor participation on the common variation in stock returns in the Turkish market. Finally, considering the two financial crises in 2001 and 2008, different results in the sub-periods are examined; and structural break tests are performed using the dummy variable technique and Chow’s (1960) methodology. The results prove that three-factor model is superior to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) although the effects of size and book-to-market factors are weak. The excess return on the market portfolio is found to be statistically significant for all model specifications and in each sub-period. The inclusion of the foreign investor participation factor improves the explanatory power of the Fama & French model only slightly; thus it has relatively less impact on the Turkish stock market despite its statistical significance. No structural break is determined for the crisis breakpoints for almost all of the portfolios; thus the model is proven to be robust.
Open Access
Do time-varying betas help in asset pricing? evidence from borsa Istanbul
(Routledge, 2015) Yayvak, B.; Akdeniz, L.; Altay-Salih, A.
We investigate the time variation in the market risk of industry portfolios of Borsa Istanbul with respect to changes in economic conditions by employing the threshold CAPM. The threshold CAPM defines beta as a function of an underlying economic variable, the threshold variable, to allow beta to change between two different regimes when the threshold variable hits a certain threshold level. We use interest rate, currency basket, real effective currency index, and market volatility as candidates for the threshold variable. We find there is a significant time variation in betas with respect to changes in the currency basket level.
Open Access
Gain-loss pricing under ambiguity of measure
(E D P Sciences, 2010) Pınar, M. Ç.
Motivated by the observation that the gain-loss criterion, while offering economically meaningful prices of contingent claims, is sensitive to the reference measure governing the underlying stock price process (a situation referred to as ambiguity of measure), we propose a gain-loss pricing model robust to shifts in the reference measure. Using a dual representation property of polyhedral risk measures we obtain a one-step, gain-loss criterion based theorem of asset pricing under ambiguity of measure, and illustrate its use.
Open Access
Impacts of short selling restrictions on stocks traded at Borsa İstanbul
(2014) Çakın, Tuğba
This study investigates impacts of short sale restrictions, particularly uptick rule which was repealed at 02.01.2014, on returns of stocks traded at Borsa Istanbul between January 2012 and March 2014. Firstly, time-series regressions are conducted to test the performance of the Fama - French (1993) three-factor model with four different portfolios, sorted according to their short sale volume ratio before and after repeal of uptick rule. The results show that in the after period portfolio consisting of heavily shorted stocks has the only significant and negative Jensen’s alpha. This indicates that after repeal of uptick rule heavily shorted stocks underperform probably because of reflection of the pessimists’ beliefs as short positions which drive asset prices down unnecessarily. Secondly, an additional short sale factor (SS), is calculated and regressed as an fourth explanatory variable in Fama-French model in an attempt to determine the common risk factors that capture the variation in stock returns before and after repeal of uptick rule. This study explores that while short sale factor (SS) substitutes size factor before repeal of uptick rule it doesn’t replace size factor after repeal of uptick rule and gains independent explanatory power from size.
Open Access
Informed trading in borsa İstanbul
(2019-05) Tiniç, Murat
This thesis investigates how information asymmetry affects asset prices in Borsa İstanbul. In the first chapter, we introduce the R package InfoTrad that estimates the probability of informed trading. Next, we examine the relationship between information asymmetry and stock returns in Borsa İstanbul. Firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate an economically insignificant relationship between PIN and future returns. Moreover, univariate and multivariate portfolio analyses show that portfolios of stocks with high levels of informed trading do not realize significant return premiums. Consequently, our results, suggest that information asymmetry is a firm-specific risk and it can be eliminated with portfolio diversification. Finally, we compare the informational (dis)advantage of foreign investors trading in Borsa İstanbul. We first show that an average foreign trade creates buy pressure whereas an average local trade generates a sell pressure. The permanent impact of foreign investors over and above local investors is significant only for 24 stocks which correspond to 7% of our sample. Importantly, we show that the foreign price impact occurs primarily in a period of political instability which started with the Gezi Park protests in June 2013. In a panel setting, we also show that adverse selection cost due to foreign trading significantly increases even when we control for firm-specific factors along with global and local macroeconomic conditions. Domestic investors with undiversified portfolios may be more risk-averse during periods of increased turmoil. This may enable foreign investors to have a better position to take advantage of potential price misalignments, especially for stocks of commercial banks.
Open Access
Informed trading, order flow shocks and the cross section of expected returns in Borsa Istanbul
(Routledge, 2020-01) Tiniç, Murat; Salih, A.
This paper examines the relationship between information asymmetry and stock returns in Borsa Istanbul. For all stocks that are traded in Borsa Istanbul between March 2005 and April 2017, we estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) to proxy for information asymmetry. Firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a statistically insignificant relationship between PIN estimates and future returns. Moreover, univariate and multivariate portfolio analyses assert that investors that hold stocks that have high information asymmetry do not obtain significant future returns. Consequently, our results suggest that information asymmetry proxied by PIN is a firm-specific risk and can be eliminated with portfolio diversification. Findings are robust to different factorizations in estimating PIN and free of any bias due to trade classification algorithms, boundary solutions, floating-point exceptions and symmetric order flow shocks.
Open Access
Institutional investment horizon, herding, and stock returns
(2020-12) Iqbal, Muhammad Sabeeh
This thesis investigates the interaction between the herding behavior of institutions classified by their investment horizons and the role of investment horizon of institutions in driving the book-to-market effect. First, we examine the price impact of the herding behavior of short- and long-horizon institutional investors. We categorize the institutional herding as same-side herding when both types of institutions herd on the buy-side or sell-side together and as opposite-side herding when short-horizon institutions buy while the long-horizon institutions sell or vice versa. We find that the previously documented destabilizing impact of long-horizon institutional herding is only observed on opposite-side herding. Moreover, short-horizon institutional herding improves the stock price discovery process confirming the belief that they are more informed. Second, we investigate the differential contribution of institutions with different investment horizons in book-to-market effect. We find that long-horizon institutions tend to buy (sell) stocks with positive (negative) past intangible information. This behavior exacerbates market overreaction and magnifies intangible return reversals and thus contributes to book-to-market effect. On the other hand, short-horizon institutions trade independent of intangible information, and their trading in the direction of intangible information does not contribute to book to market effect. Moreover, our findings also support that short-horizon institutions are better informed than long-horizon institutions.
Open Access
On the performance of West's bubble test: a simulation approach
(Elsevier, 2010-12-01) Yuksel, A.; Akdeniz, L.; Altay-Salih, A.
In this research we examine the ability of West’s bubble test [1] in detecting speculative bubbles using Brock’s (1982) [2] intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset pricing as the basis for a simulation study. In this setting, (1) the economy, by construction is effi- cient and produces the maximally possible amount of welfare for society, and (2) asset prices reflect the utility-maximizing behavior of consumers and the profit-maximizing behavior of firms. We find that the West’s bubble test flag as ‘‘bubbles” in the simulated data yet the data is produced from an economy in which markets are efficient in welfare production.