Browsing by Author "Mumford, J. E."
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Item Open Access Autocratisation and universal health coverage: synthetic control study(BMJ Publishing Group, 2020) Wigley, Simon; Dieleman, J. L.; Templin, T.; Mumford, J. E.; Bollyky, T. J.Objective: To assess the relation between autocratisation—substantial decreases in democratic traits (free and fair elections, freedom of civil and political association, and freedom of expression)—and countries’ population health outcomes and progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). Design: Synthetic control analysis. Setting and country selection: Global sample of countries for all years from 1989 to 2019, split into two categories: 17 treatment countries that started autocratising during 2000 to 2010, and 119 control countries that never autocratised from 1989 to 2019. The treatment countries comprised low and middle income nations and represent all world regions except North America and western Europe. A weighted combination of control countries was used to construct synthetic controls for each treatment country. This statistical method is especially well suited to population level studies when random assignment is infeasible and sufficiently similar comparators are not available. The method was originally developed in economics and political science to assess the impact of policies and events, and it is now increasingly used in epidemiology. Main outcome measures: HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years, UHC effective coverage index (0-100 point scale), and out-of-pocket spending on health per capita. All outcome variables are for the period 1989 to 2019. Results: Autocratising countries underperformed for all three outcome variables in the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation, despite some improvements in life expectancy, UHC effective coverage index, and out-of-pocket spending on health. On average, HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years increased by 2.2% (from 64.7 to 66.1 years) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.3% to 3.6%, P<0.001) (from 64.7 to 66.9 years) in the absence of autocratisation. On average, the UHC effective coverage index increased by 11.9% (from 42.5 to 47.6 points) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 20.2% (95% confidence interval 19.6% to 21.2%, P<0.001) (from 42.5 to 51.1 points) in the absence of autocratisation. Finally, on average, out-of-pocket spending on health per capita increased by 10.0% (from $4.00 (£3.1; €3.4) to $4.4, log transformed) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by only 4.4% (95% confidence interval 3.9% to 4.6%, P<0.001) (from $4.0 to $4.2, log transformed) in the absence of autocratisation. Conclusions: Autocratising countries had worse than estimated life expectancy, effective health service coverage, and levels of out-of-pocket spending on health. These results suggest that the noticeable increase in the number of countries that are experiencing democratic erosion in recent years is hindering population health gains and progress toward UHC. Global health institutions will need to adjust their policy recommendations and activities to obtain the best possible results in those countries with a diminishing democratic incentive to provide quality healthcare to populations.Item Open Access Democracies linked to greater universal health coverage compared with autocracies, even in an economic recession(Project HOPE, 2021-08) Templin, T.; Dieleman, J. L.; Wigley, Simon; Mumford, J. E.; Miller-Petrie, M.; Kiernan, S.; Bollyky, T. J.Despite widespread recognition that universal health coverage is a political choice, the roles that a country’s political system plays in ensuring essential health services and minimizing financial risk remain poorly understood. Identifying the political determinants of universal health coverage is important for continued progress, and understanding the roles of political systems is particularly valuable in a global economic recession, which tests the continued commitment of nations to protecting their health of its citizens and to shielding them from financial risk. We measured the associations that democracy has with universal health coverage and government health spending in 170 countries during the period 1990–2019. We assessed how economic recessions affect those associations (using synthetic control methods) and the mechanisms connecting democracy with government health spending and universal health coverage (using machine learning methods). Our results show that democracy is positively associated with universal health coverage and government health spending and that this association is greatest for low-income countries. Free and fair elections were the mechanism primarily responsible for those positive associations. Democracies are more likely than autocracies to maintain universal health coverage, even amid economic recessions, when access to affordable, effective health services matters most.