Browsing by Author "Karan, M. B."

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Open Access
Forecasting short run performance of initial public offerings in the Istanbul stock exchange
(Pepperdine University * Graziadio School of Business and Management, 2003) Aktaş, R.; Karan, M. B.; Aydoğan, K.
Previous research on IPOs has identified several factors or issue characteristics that play a role in the level of short term underpricing of initial public offerings. Some of those issue features are the firm size, market trend, size of the offer, investment banker reputation, method of intermediation, stock price range and investor type. The objective of this study is to develop a model based on these features to forecast the short term performance of IPOs in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. To this end we divided our sample period into a model building subperiod and a testing subperiod. After identifying 9 issue features that are related to IPO short term pricing, we estimated our models using multiple regression, multiple discriminant and logit methods. The estimated models are then tested against the IPO data in the subsequent period between 1997- 2000. The overall predictive ability of the forecasting models can be described as mediocre. In terms of actual abnormal returns obtained from investment strategies based on model predictions, only the logit models beat the outcome of naive strategies, albeit only marginally.
Open Access
The switching behavior of large-scale electricity consumers in The Turkish electricity retail market
(Elsevier, 2022-01) Erdogan, M. R.; Camgoz, S. M.; Karan, M. B.; Berument, M. Hakan
This paper studies the effects of various economic and psychological factors on the switching behavior of large-scale electricity consumers in Turkey. Switching frequency and switching direction are two variables used to analyze switching behavior. The former is concerned with how often retailers change their suppliers. On the other hand, switching direction measures the direction of switching preferences of consumers between two electricity suppliers since the incumbent has a brand advantage over new suppliers that creates inertia and may reduce competition in the market. The target group of this study is large-scale electricity consumers rather than residential consumers since the switching activities of large-scale consumers are more competitive. We employ a five-point Likert scale questionnaire to construct eight psychological and economic factors to explain switching activities. The estimates indicate that improving service quality and providing essential services are the main motivations for switching decisions. Satisfaction with primary services, the homogeneity of the retail electricity market, and switching costs enhance the status quo; however, clarity of contracts and assistance for electricity distribution services (maintenance, metering, billing, etc.) affect the switching activities.