Browsing by Author "Javorcik, B."

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3

Open Access
Don't throw in the towel, throw in trade credit!
(Elsevier B.V., 2018) Demir, Banu; Javorcik, B.
The literature has documented how firms adjust to increased competitive pressures arising from globalization. This paper demonstrates a new margin of adjustment, namely, provision of trade credit. A simple model predicts that an increase in competitive pressures will lead exporters to provide trade credit and lower prices and that the price adjustment will be attenuated by trade credit provision. These predictions are tested in the context of an exogenous shock, the end of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA), a quota system governing trade in textiles and clothing until the end-2004. The analysis focuses on Turkey which was not subject to quotas in the EU and thus faced an increase in competition after the quotas on China had been removed. The results suggest that in the post-MFA period Turkish exports of products with binding MFA quotas prior to the shock saw an increase in the provision of trade credit and a drop in prices relative to the other products. There is also evidence that provision of trade credit generated a dampening effect on the price response to the increase in competition.
Open Access
Trade finance matters: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis
(Oxford University Press, 2020) Demir, Banu; Javorcik, B.
This study documents a substantial decline in the exports of major trading nations taking place in March 2020. Accounting for product-specific seasonality and annual trends, the data suggest a drop by 38 per cent in France, about a quarter in Turkey and Germany, and 12 per cent in the US, relative to their historical averages. Detailed export data from Turkey, disaggregated by financing terms, show another striking pattern. Flows using bank intermediation which eliminates or reduces the risk of non-payment or non-arrival of prepaid goods, such as letters of credit or documentary collection, appear to have been much more resilient to the current downturn relative to flows using other financing terms. These findings suggest that access to trade finance is vital during times of heightened uncertainty.
Open Access
Trade policy changes, tax evasion and Benford's law
(Elsevier, 2020) Demir, Banu; Javorcik, B.
This paper draws attention to import duty evasion as a margin through which firms adjust to changes in trade policy. This margin is different from the other forms of adjustment, as it can be employed very fast and thus it may constitute the initial reaction to the shock before a slower adjustment through the other channels takes place. The study also proposes a new method of detecting tax evasion in international trade, based on deviations from Benford's law. It applies the method in the context of an unexpected policy change in Turkey that increased the cost of import financing. The results are consistent with an immediate increase in tax evasion in the affected import flows, which dies down a year later. A standard approach to detecting tariff evasion, based on “missing trade”, confirms these conclusions.