Browsing by Author "Hoffmann, Clemens"

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Open Access
Beyond scarcity: rethinking water, climate change and conflict in the Sudans
(Elsevier, 2014) Selby, J.; Hoffmann, Clemens
This article develops a new framework for understanding environment-conflict relations, on both theoretical grounds and through a qualitative historical analysis of the links between water and conflict in the states of Sudan and South Sudan. Theoretically, the article critiques the dominant emphases on ‘scarcity’, ‘state failure’ and ‘under-development’ within discussions of environmental security, and proposes an alternative model of environment-conflict relations centring on resource abundance and globally-embedded processes of state-building and development. Empirically, it examines three claimed (or possible) linkages between water and conflict in the Sudans: over trans-boundary waters of the Nile; over the links between internal resource scarcities and civil conflict; and over the internal conflict impacts of water abundance and development. We find that there exists only limited evidence in support of the first two of these linkages, but plentiful evidence that water abundance, and state-directed processes of economic development and internal colonisation relating to water, have had violent consequences. We conclude that analysts and policymakers should pay more attention to the impacts of resource abundance, militarised state power and global political economic forces in their assessments of the potential conflict impacts of environmental and especially climate change.
Open Access
The contradictions of development: primitive accumulation and geopolitics in the two Sudans
(Routledge, 2013) Hoffmann, Clemens; Allan, J. A.; Keulertz, M.; Sojamo, S.; Warner, J.
The recent opening ceremony of the so-called Lamu Port and Lamu Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET) has laid bare yet again the inherently contradictory nature of post-colonial development. The mega project creates a new East African transport corridor connecting land-locked South Sudan and Ethiopia with a 32-berth deep-sea water facility at the Indian Ocean. Among a variety of development objectives in the participating countries, the project is designed to oﬀer an alternative export route for South Sudanese crude oil. Since its independence, the ‘world’s newest country’ has been at loggerheads with its former rulers in Khartoum over a transfer fee for using the pipeline, reﬁneries and port facilities for the traditional export route through the Red Sea. Yet even though the project, if implemented, will have a tremendously positive eﬀect on South Sudan’s development potential, local communities in Lamu claim they have not been consulted over the development of the UNESCO heritage site into a major infrastructure hub (Gari 2012; York 2012). This dispute reﬂects but one of the imminent contradictions South Sudan faces in its eﬀort to catch up. Closer to home, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is sought to develop the post-war economy and increase state revenue (Sudan Tribune 2012a) as well as agricultural production as a means to boost food security (Lupai 2012). This strategy is inﬂuential across Africa (Bush et al. 2011: 188-9), but the Horn of Africa appears to be a special case due to its high vulnerability to food insecurity (USAID and Famine EarlyWarning SystemNetwork 2012). In fact, theUNWorld Food Programme (WFP) expects to feed up to half of South Sudan’s population in 2012 (WFP and FAO 2012). Measured by these objectives, the land investment activity in South Sudan to this day has not yielded great results. Acquisitions lacked good practice with regards to community consultation and environmental impact assessments (Deng 2011), while most transactions appear to remain merely speculative (Mosley 2012). It is not only food insecurity that remains a paramount issue for the Republic of South Sudan, however, but also the long-established need to diversify the economy after the dispute with the North has led to the loss of all oil revenues at a time when ‘internal’ and ‘external’ conﬂicts spiral and put heavy burdens on the stretched budget.
Open Access
Rethinking climate change, conflict and security
(Taylor&Francis, 2014) Selby, J.; Hoffmann, Clemens
This special issue of Geopolitics presents a series of critical interventions on the links between global anthropogenic climate change, conflict and security. In this introduction, we situate the special issue by providing an assessment of the state of debate on climate security, and then by summarising the eight articles that follow. We observe, to start with, that contemporary climate security discourse is dominated by a problematic ensemble of policy-led framings and assumptions. And we submit that the contributions to this issue help rethink this dominant discourse in two distinct ways, offering both a series of powerful critiques, plus new interpretations of climate-conflict linkages which extend beyond Malthusian orthodoxy.
Open Access
Water scarcity, conflict, and migration: a comparative analysis and reappraisal
(Sage Publications, 2012) Selby, J.; Hoffmann, Clemens
How should we characterise the relations between environmental scarcity, conflict, and migration? Most academic and policy analyses conclude that scarcities of environmental resources can have significant impacts upon conflict and migration, and claim or imply that within the context of accelerating global environmental changes these impacts are likely to become more significant still. Many analyses admittedly recognise that these impacts are often indirect rather than direct and that there exist multiple ‘drivers’ of conflict and migration, of which environmental stresses are but one. We argue that even these qualifications do not go far enough, however: they still overstate the current and likely future significance of environmental changes and stresses in contributing to conflict and migration and underemphasise a far more important causal pathway-from conflict and migration to environmental vulnerabilities. These arguments are advanced via a comparative analysis of water-migration-conflict linkages in Cyprus and Israel and the West Bank and Gaza.